Los Angeles Lakers vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Milwaukee is 1-10, allows 121.2 points per game, and just lost by 32 at New York on Tuesday night, and now Luka Doncic and the 10-2 Lakers arrive with a day of rest behind them. The only real question at Fiserv Forum is whether a double-digit road number can still be too short against a team playing this badly.

The Matchup

The Lakers are 10-2, score 122.1 points per game and allow 114.4, and Luka Doncic is playing at a level that bends every game plan toward him. Doncic leads Los Angeles at 39.3 points and 7.9 assists per game, and Walker Kessler leads the Lakers at 10.8 rebounds. Los Angeles won 124-114 at Atlanta on Monday and had Tuesday off. Quentin Grimes is day-to-day for the Lakers. Keep an eye on whether Grimes plays before placing a bet.

Milwaukee is 1-10, scores 106.3 and allows 121.2, the worst defensive number in this matchup and one of the worst starts in the league. The Bucks lost 117-85 at New York on Tuesday, their second straight blowout after a 117-97 home loss to Boston on Sunday. Tyler Herro is out with a bruise, and Herro leads Milwaukee at 21.4 points and 4.3 assists per game, so the Bucks are missing their leading scorer and their lead creator at the same time. Kel'el Ware leads Milwaukee at just 6.9 rebounds per game.

This is the second night of a back-to-back for Milwaukee, at home, against a rested visitor. Every team in this game has played at least ten games, so these are this season's numbers with nothing carried over. DraftKings makes Los Angeles a 10.5-point road favorite at Fiserv Forum, with a total of 233.5 and the Lakers at -650 on the moneyline.

Key Factors

Milwaukee cannot stop anyone right now, and that is not a slump talking. The Bucks allow 121.2 points per game, they just gave up 117 on consecutive nights to Boston and New York, and the offense that is supposed to keep them close scores only 106.3. A team getting outscored at both ends like this has no margin for the one bad quarter that ends most underdog covers.

Doncic makes it worse. At 39.3 points per game he is the matchup Milwaukee has no personnel for, and without Herro the Bucks cannot answer his runs with creation of their own. Kessler at 10.8 rebounds per game against a Milwaukee team whose best rebounder sits at 6.9 means the Lakers will finish defensive possessions and start fast breaks against a defense that is already scrambling.

The honest counter is the number itself. Double-digit road favorites disappoint bettors every week, Milwaukee is home and embarrassed, and a proud team often plays its hardest game right after a humiliation. If the Bucks defend with real desperation for once, they can hang around. Nothing in eleven games of evidence says that defense exists, though, and the pick is not going to invent it on a hunch.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.