Louisville Cardinals vs Ball State Cardinals Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

No. 7 Louisville is 4-0 and has allowed 43.5 points a game, and Thursday it goes to Worthen Arena, where Ball State's frontcourt has produced 40 points and 24 rebounds in two games. Louisville is favored by 22.5 on the road.

The Matchup

Louisville has been the most ruthless team in the country through two weeks. The Cardinals are 4-0, beating Bellarmine 119-47, Stetson 87-35 and Lindenwood 71-35 at home and winning 80-57 at Southern Indiana, scoring 89.2 points per game and allowing 43.5. Tajianna Roberts has scored 64 points in four games with 11 steals, Imari Berry has scored 54, and Amiya Joyner has pulled down 37 rebounds. Roberts, Berry and Joyner carry no injury designations for Thursday.

Ball State is 1-1, and its two home games say the Cardinals from Muncie can score. They beat Arkansas State 84-74, then lost 78-71 to High Point, scoring 77.5 points per game. Grace Kingery scored 33 against Arkansas State, Tessa Towers has scored 40 points with 24 rebounds across the two games, and Lilli Barnes has scored 38 with 22 rebounds and 10 assists. Kingery, Towers and Barnes carry no injury designations for Thursday.

Last season, Louisville went 29-8, scoring 78.7 points per game and allowing 61.0, and Ball State went 26-7, scoring 78.7 and allowing 66.0, the class of the Mid-American. Ball State's defense has slipped in the new season, giving up 74 and 78 in its two games, and that slip was against Arkansas State and High Point, not against a team with Roberts coming downhill at it. Louisville's numbers, on the other hand, have improved on last season at both ends, which is what makes this spread as large as it is.

Key Factors

Look at Louisville's one road game. At Southern Indiana, the Cardinals won by 23, their tightest margin of the season, and tonight's spread asks for almost exactly that again in a louder building against a better team. Worthen Arena is a real home court, and Ball State's frontcourt, Towers and Barnes combining for 78 points and 46 rebounds in two games, gives the home team a way to score that Louisville's first four opponents simply did not have.

The second factor is whether Ball State can get into its offense at all. Louisville's pressure is the engine: Roberts has 11 steals and Berry 9 in four games, and the Cardinals turn games into transition drills. Barnes, Ball State's best playmaker, committed 10 turnovers against Arkansas State even in a win. She is the swing player in the whole game: if she values the ball, Ball State's half-court offense is good enough to trade baskets for long stretches.

The counterpoint is that slip in Ball State's defense. A team that gave up 78 to High Point at home is now facing the highest-scoring attack it will see all season, and Louisville has covered numbers like this three times already, by margins of 72, 52 and 36. If the Cardinals' pressure cracks Barnes early, this turns into the Bellarmine game with a different name on the jersey. The bet is that Ball State's size, scoring and building keep it competitive into the second half.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.