Nebraska vs Rutgers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 11

Nebraska arrives in Piscataway on a three-game losing streak despite a defense that rarely gets embarrassed. Rutgers is 2-7 and allows points freely, yet Antwan Raymond and KJ Duff give the Scarlet Knights just enough firepower to make a heavy favorite work for it.

The Matchup

The strange thing about Nebraska is that the record and the results have split apart. The Cornhuskers allow only 16.6 points per game, a number that usually travels anywhere in the conference, yet they have lost three straight: 17-14 at Oregon, 17-10 to Washington, and 24-13 at Illinois. Read those scores again and the problem is obvious. The defense kept every one of those games within reach and the offense could not finish the job.

Anthony Colandrea has thrown for 2,109 yards and 16 touchdowns this season, and he was sharp in the most recent game with 284 yards and no interceptions, but sharp has not meant explosive for Nebraska lately. Jamal Rule ran for 69 yards in that game and has 532 yards on the season, and Jacory Barney Jr. caught 6 passes for 93 yards and a touchdown, so the pieces are there. They just have not fired together when a game tightens.

Rutgers has the opposite problem, and it is the more honest one. The Scarlet Knights score 25.8 points per game but allow 32.4, which is how a team with real offensive talent lands at 2-7. Antwan Raymond is a legitimate workhorse with 789 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns, and KJ Duff has 45 catches for 774 yards and 9 touchdowns, a scoring threat any defense has to account for.

Ben Black III caught 6 passes for 70 yards in the most recent game, giving Rutgers a second option when Duff draws attention. The Scarlet Knights lost 42-14 at Northwestern last time out, so nobody should confuse them with a good team. But at home, against an opponent whose offense has stalled for a month, a flawed team with two proven playmakers is more dangerous than its record looks.

Key Factors

Nebraska's favorite case rests on the trenches and the scoreboard it usually controls. The Cornhuskers bring 25 sacks and a defense allowing 16.6 points per game into a stadium where the home team has given the ball away 14 times, and Dylan Lonergan has thrown 6 interceptions for Rutgers.

If Nebraska's pressure turns Rutgers one-dimensional and Colandrea finds Kwazi Gilmer, who has 603 yards and 7 touchdowns, the favorite can separate the way Northwestern did against this same Rutgers team. What beats the pick is exactly that script: early Rutgers turnovers, a two-score Nebraska lead, and Raymond reduced to running into a defense that no longer respects the pass.

The case falls short because Nebraska keeps failing to produce that script itself. Three straight losses with 14, 10, and 13 points scored is not bad luck; it is an offense that stalls against decent defenses, and Rutgers at home only has to be decent in stretches. The Scarlet Knights have also taken the ball away 16 times, so Colandrea, who has thrown 7 interceptions this season, is not facing a passive defense.

AJ Surace threw for 161 yards without an interception in the most recent game, and if Rutgers simply avoids the giveaway avalanche, Raymond's volume and Duff's finishing keep this a working margin deep into the second half. Nebraska is the better team and should win in Piscataway, but a favorite that cannot score cannot be trusted to win big, and right now Nebraska cannot score.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.