Loyola Marymount Lions vs South Alabama Jaguars Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Loyola Marymount and South Alabama meet on a neutral floor in Pensacola with identical 1-2 records and opposite problems. The Lions can score, and the Jaguars have not stopped anyone yet this season.

The Matchup

Loyola Marymount meets South Alabama on Thursday night at Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, a neutral floor, with South Alabama a 1.5-point favorite and a total of 142.5. South Alabama is listed as the home team, but there is no home court here, and that matters for a game lined this close.

Both teams are 1-2. Loyola Marymount is scoring 88.7 points a game and allowing 73.3 this season.

South Alabama is scoring 76.3 and allowing 80.7. Last season the identities were different: South Alabama went 21-12 while scoring 74.4 points a game and allowing just 70.1, a defensive team that won with stops. Loyola Marymount went 15-17, scoring 74.3 and allowing 72.1. The early season twist is that the Lions' scoring jump is partly one 102-50 win over Lincoln (CA), while the Jaguars' defensive slip has shown up in all three of their games, losses of 86-77 to Ohio and 76-69 at UCF around an 83-80 win over Jacksonville State.

Jasai Miles and the Loyola Marymount rotation carry no injury designations, and neither do Aaron Goldstein or anyone else for South Alabama.

Key Factors

Loyola Marymount's frontcourt is the best unit in this game. At Troy on Tuesday, in a 74-69 loss, Zion Sensley scored 14 points and grabbed 14 rebounds, and Jevon Porter added 13 points, 9 rebounds and 2 blocks. Miles led the Lions with 17 points and made 4 three-pointers, and All Wright ran the offense with 7 assists.

That is scoring from the perimeter, the post and the bench in the same game, on the road, against a Troy team that won the game. South Alabama has to guard all of it on a neutral floor with a defense allowing 80.7 points a game.

South Alabama's scoring, by contrast, runs through two players. At UCF, Goldstein scored 20 points and made 6 three-pointers, and Stephen Williams added 18 points and 11 rebounds, and the Jaguars still lost by 7 because nobody else reached double figures until Roderick Williams Jr. got to 9 off the bench. If Miles and Wright chase Goldstein off his spots, South Alabama's offense narrows to Williams inside, and Porter and Sensley are exactly the kind of length that makes that a hard living.

The counterpoint is that South Alabama's track record says this defense is better than three games. The Jaguars won 21 games last season allowing 70.1 points a game, and Loyola Marymount just lost at Troy while allowing Queens University to score 96 points in its opener.

If the Jaguars' real defense shows up in Pensacola and Goldstein shoots like he did at UCF, South Alabama wins this game outright. The play is on what both teams have actually been this season: the Lions scoring from everywhere, the Jaguars stopping nobody, and no home crowd to close the gap.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.