Loyola Marymount Lions vs Troy Trojans Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Troy has lost its first two games by 11 and 23 points and scored 64.0 points a game. Loyola Marymount and Zion Sensley, averaging 21.0 points and 9.5 rebounds, visit Trojan Arena on Tuesday night.

The Matchup

Loyola Marymount visits Troy on Tuesday night at Trojan Arena in Troy, on ESPN+, with Loyola Marymount a 1.5-point road favorite, a total of 148.5, and the Lions priced at -125 on the moneyline against Troy at +105. Loyola Marymount is 1-1. Troy is 0-2, and this is the Trojans' home opener after two road losses.

Loyola Marymount split a wild first week. The Lions lost 96-95 to Queens on November 5, then beat Lincoln (CA) 102-50, scoring 98.5 points a game and allowing 73.0. Zion Sensley has been the best player on the floor in both games, leading LMU at 21.0 points a game and 9.5 rebounds a game. Mazi Mosley hands out 4.5 assists a game. Sensley and Mosley are both active with no injury designations.

Troy has struggled to score. The Trojans lost 71-60 at Massachusetts and 91-68 at Florida State, scoring 64.0 points a game and allowing 81.0. Donovan Oday leads Troy at 14.0 points a game and 7.0 rebounds a game, and Jacoi Hutchinson hands out 5.5 assists a game.

Last season Troy was the better program by a wide margin. The Trojans went 22-12, scoring 79.3 points a game and allowing 73.2, while Loyola Marymount went 15-17, scoring 74.3 and allowing 72.1. That Troy team has not shown up yet.

The Trojans' offense has produced 60 and 68 points, and while Massachusetts and Florida State are tough road stops, a home opener against a West Coast team traveling east is exactly the spot where Troy has to prove last season's form is still in there. Sensley's start says the Lions brought their best player on the trip.

Key Factors

Sensley is the matchup problem. A forward scoring 21.0 a game and rebounding at 9.5 a game stresses a Troy frontcourt whose own leader, Oday, is at 14.0 and 7.0. Troy has to help on Sensley, and help opens the floor for an LMU offense that has scored 95 and 102 in its two games. The Lions do not need a defensive masterpiece if Sensley keeps producing at this rate.

Troy's offense is the other half. At 64.0 points a game, the Trojans are not built to chase, and Hutchinson creating at 5.5 assists a game has not yet turned into points around him. Florida State ran Troy off the floor, and while LMU is not Florida State, a team that cannot reach 70 cannot afford many empty stretches against a favorite laying only 1.5.

The honest counterpoint is Troy's pedigree and the building. The Trojans won 22 games last season with a defense that allowed 73.2 a game, Trojan Arena is a genuine home edge, and LMU's 102 points came against Lincoln (CA), a lower-division opponent. If Troy's defense wakes up at home and Oday matches Sensley for a night, the short road favorite is in trouble. The bet is on what both teams have actually shown this month, and right now that is one team scoring freely and one team searching.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.