LSU New Orleans Privateers at LSU Tigers Prediction and Pick

Two purple and gold teams from Louisiana meet in Baton Rouge on Tuesday night, as LSU opens its season at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center against the New Orleans Privateers. The Tigers begin with a rebuilt rotation after a 15-17 season, and the Privateers bring a veteran backcourt across the state for the opener.

The Matchup

This is the strangest kind of family business. New Orleans rejoined the LSU System this year and rebranded as LSU New Orleans, so Tuesday night sends one purple and gold team across the state to face another, in the 20th meeting of a series LSU leads 15-4 with nine straight wins. The Privateers have not beaten LSU since 2001 and have not won in Baton Rouge since 1986, and last season's trip ended 93-58. The history is not the argument for the points. The present is.

LSU went 15-17 last season, finished last in the SEC at 3-15, and was picked 14th this year even after Will Wade rebuilt the roster in the portal. The Tigers scored 81.4 points per game and allowed 78.5, and the new group has kept the same shape through three exhibitions: talented, loose, and generous at the defensive end.

New point guard Donovan Dent, in from UCLA, averaged 13.3 points and 7.6 assists last season, and Skyy Clark (11.5 points, .427 from three at UCLA) hit seven threes on his way to 21 points in the final exhibition at Florida State. Mo Dioubate brings 8.8 points and 5.5 rebounds from Kentucky, and Kansas State transfer Abdi Bashir Jr. is active and scored 26 against UCF in the exhibitions after a foot injury ended his season early last year.

New Orleans went 15-18 last season, scoring 74.5 and allowing 77.7. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now, but the Privateers were a genuinely good road team, with nine road wins including a 78-74 win at TCU in the opener. Neither team reports an injury concern for this game.

Key Factors

The Privateers' backcourt is built to keep a favorite honest. Nick Jones, in from Wagner after averaging 14.9 points with 1.8 steals and an .826 mark at the foul line, scored a team-high 19 points in New Orleans' 82-72 exhibition win at Southern Miss. Next to him, Canisius transfer Kahlil Singleton averaged 13.9 points and shot .385 from three on real volume, 87 made threes, with a 37-point game and nine threes against Fairfield on his record.

Top returner Kedrick Osby scored 18 in the Southern Miss exhibition. A team that can score from three spots and gets to the line the way New Orleans does, 19.2 made free throws a game last season at .743, is hard to put away for good, because every foul stops the clock and hands back points.

LSU's own exhibitions are the other half of the case. The Tigers beat McNeese 63-60, beat UCF 85-81, and lost 89-87 at Florida State, allowing 81 and 87 in the last two, with Wade playing only six to eight men.

A short rotation protecting a lead, with Texas Southern coming to Baton Rouge on Friday in a run of three home games in seven days, tends to manage the fourth quarter rather than hunt a margin. The combined scoring profiles also sit right on the posted total, which suits a game that trades baskets instead of grinding.

The risk is written in the Privateers' own numbers: 14.4 turnovers a game last season and an assist to turnover ratio under one. Dent runs an offense that protects the ball, and if LSU's pressure turns New Orleans' guards over early, the margin can reach this number by halftime and the backdoor never opens.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.