Memphis Grizzlies vs Sacramento Kings Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings on Sunday. Memphis is 2-0, Sacramento is 0-2. Differentials on a 50/50 split of the 2026-27 start and the 2025-26 final: Memphis +2.8, Sacramento -13.2. Our data-driven pick: Memphis Grizzlies -3.5.

01The Matchup

The Sunday nightcap at Golden 1 Center pairs the slate's most pleasant surprise with its most alarming start, and the spread has only partly caught up. Memphis is 2-0, scoring 117.0 points per game and allowing 105.5 for a +11.5 differential, winning with defense as much as offense.

Sacramento is 0-2, scoring 108.0 and allowing 124.5 for a -16.5 mark, the worst early differential in the league. Both teams have played fewer than 10 games, so the fairest read splits 50/50 between this season and the 2025-26 final differential, and even after last season pulls Memphis back, the gap stays wide: the Grizzlies are +2.8 (+11.5 this season, -6.0 last season on a 25-57 record) and the Kings are -13.2 (-16.5 this season, -10.0 last season on a 22-60 record).

Ty Jerome and Jerami Grant drive the rebuilt Grizzlies, Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine lead Sacramento, and DraftKings makes Memphis -3.5 on the road with a total of 234.5 and Memphis -166 on the moneyline. Memphis is not whole tonight: starting center Zach Edey, who played both games of the 2-0 start, is out with an ankle injury, which costs the Grizzlies their best finisher and rim deterrent.

02Key Factors

The decisive factor is Sacramento's defense, which is broken in both samples: 124.5 allowed per game this season after allowing 121.0 per game across a 22-60 last season. Memphis does not need an outlier shooting night to score on that defense; it needs its normal offense, and that offense runs through Ty Jerome, who scored 45 in the opener and 28 at Golden State.

Edey's absence costs Memphis easy finishes inside, but Sacramento's frontcourt still has to choose between protecting the rim and staying home on Grant and Cameron Boozer, and it has chosen wrong in both of its games. Second, the defensive contrast runs the other way too. Memphis has allowed 105.5 per game, and while two games is a small sample, that number forces LaVine and Sabonis to create against a set defense rather than in the open floor Sacramento needs.

Third, the total of 234.5 prices a shootout, and shootouts favor the team that can also get stops: the combined scoring so far is 225.0 per game, below the total, and the shortfall is mostly Sacramento's offense, which managed 108.0 per game against defenses softer than the one Memphis brings in. The risk is Memphis's own history: the Grizzlies were a 25-57 team last season and are laying points on the road, and Sabonis at home can keep Sacramento close by himself if Memphis's early defense slips.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.