Memphis Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

No. 22 Vanderbilt has allowed 47 and 51 points in its two home games. Memphis arrives in Nashville at 2-0 behind Jayden Reid and his 29.0 points a game, in an in-state game the Commodores are favored by 16.5.

The Matchup

Vanderbilt hosts Memphis on Tuesday night at Memorial Gymnasium in Nashville, on SECN+, with Vanderbilt a 16.5-point favorite, a total of 158.5, and the Commodores priced at -2,100 on the moneyline against Memphis at +1,100. Both teams are 2-0. They have gotten there in opposite ways, and the clash of styles is the game.

Memphis beat Iowa State 80-76 on November 3 and VCU 89-88 on November 7, two real wins over real programs, both in the final possessions. Jayden Reid has carried the Tigers: he leads the team at 29.0 points a game and 4.0 assists a game, and Corneilous Williams leads them on the glass at 7.0 rebounds a game. Reid and Williams are both active with no injury designations. Memphis has scored 84.5 points a game and allowed 82.0, and a team that gives up 88 to VCU is telling you how it wants to play.

Vanderbilt, ranked No. 22 in the AP poll, beat Bellarmine 93-47 on November 3 and Wake Forest 74-51 on November 5, both at home. Holding an ACC team to 51 points is a defensive statement, and the Commodores have allowed 49.0 points a game through two. Tyler Tanner leads Vanderbilt in everything: 18.5 points a game, 4.0 assists a game, and 6.0 rebounds a game, a guard setting the terms at both ends. Tanner is active with no injury designation.

Last season separates them clearly. Vanderbilt went 27-9, scoring 85.7 points a game and allowing 75.0, and started this season ranked because most of that team matters again. Memphis went 13-19, scoring 75.2 and allowing 76.7. The Tigers' 2-0 start, with wins over Iowa State and VCU, is better than anything they did a year ago. It has also come in shootouts, and Nashville is where shootouts have gone to die this month.

Key Factors

The game turns on whether Memphis gets to play its game at its pace. The Tigers' two wins produced 156 and 177 total points. Vanderbilt's two home games produced 140 and 125, because the Commodores squeeze the life out of visiting offenses: 47 allowed to Bellarmine, 51 to Wake Forest. The posted total of 158.5 sides with Memphis's version of the night. Vanderbilt's defense, at home, in a building with raised baselines and a crowd that sits on top of the floor, is the strongest single unit in this game.

Reid against Tanner is the matchup inside the matchup. Reid at 29.0 points a game is the most explosive scorer on the floor, and Memphis needs him to be, because the load behind him is thin. Tanner leads a ranked team in scoring, assists, and rebounding, which means Vanderbilt's best player is also its organizer and its tone-setter on defense. If Tanner's pressure turns Reid into a volume shooter working late in the clock, Memphis's offense stalls in a way it has not yet this season.

The honest counterpoint is that Memphis has beaten better teams than Vanderbilt has. Iowa State and VCU are real wins, earned in close games, and a team comfortable in the last two minutes can steal a cover even while losing. Vanderbilt's defensive numbers also came against Bellarmine and a Wake Forest team finding itself. If Reid hangs 30 on the Commodores and the game stays in the 80s, 16.5 points is a big ask. The bet is that Memorial Gymnasium does to Memphis what it has done to everyone else this month.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.