VCU Rams vs Memphis Tigers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Memphis is home off a ranked road win at Iowa State, and VCU is the visitor with the far better recent history. Saturday at FedExForum has letdown written all over it, with a very short number attached.

The Matchup

VCU visits Memphis on Saturday afternoon at FedExForum in Memphis, on ESPN+, with Memphis a 1.5-point favorite and a total of 157.5. Both teams are 1-0, and this is the kind of early Atlantic 10 against American Conference game that quietly matters in March, because both leagues send teams to the tournament on the strength of wins exactly like this one.

The recent histories are not close. VCU finished 28-8 last season, scoring 80.8 points a game and allowing 71.8, and opened this season by beating Little Rock 82-72. Memphis finished 13-19 last season, scoring 75.2 and allowing 76.7, then opened with the best win of its young season, an 80-76 victory at Iowa State.

One game each into this season, the picture has barely moved: VCU handled Little Rock, and Memphis needed all 26 points from Jayden Reid to get past Iowa State by four. Even with that caveat, one program spent last year winning 28 games and the other spent it losing 19, and that gap does not vanish because of one good night in Sioux Falls.

VCU's opener was a committee performance. Torey Alston came off the bench for 17 points and 12 rebounds, Lazar Djokovic scored 15, Nyk Lewis scored 15 with 5 assists, and Blake Harper added 14. Four players between 14 and 17 points is a hard team to guard, because there is no single man a defense can load up on. Memphis had the bigger individual night, with Jayden Reid scoring 26, but the Tigers needed every one of them in a four-point game.

Key Factors

VCU's depth is the mechanism in this pick. Alston producing a double-double off the bench means the Rams do not drop off when the starters sit, and Lewis ran the offense with 5 assists. Memphis has not stopped anybody yet. The Tigers gave up 76 points in the Iowa State win and allowed 76.7 a game last season on the way to 13-19. A team that defends at that level lets a balanced visitor trade baskets for forty minutes, and trading baskets is all a short underdog has to do.

Memphis also has a ball security problem to clean up. Tylik Weeks turned the ball over 6 times in the opener, and loose possessions against VCU are how a road team builds the small cushion that protects a short spread late. The situational spot points the same way.

Memphis is home after the biggest road win its program has had in a while, in a Saturday afternoon building, against a visitor that won 28 games last season and knows how to guard. That is a letdown setup, and the total of 157.5 says points will come easily enough for the deeper team to stay in front of the number.

The counterpoint is Jayden Reid, and he is a real one. Reid scored 26 at Iowa State and went 12-of-14 at the free-throw line, Luke Almodovar added 18 points with 8 rebounds, and Rihards Vavers scored 15, so Memphis has a star who can take a close game over in the final minutes in his own building. If Reid controls the last five minutes the way he did in Sioux Falls and Memphis takes care of the ball, the Tigers win this by two possessions and the short number never comes into play.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.