Merrimack Warriors vs UAlbany Great Danes Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

UAlbany is 2-0 with a road win at Manhattan already banked, and Merrimack arrives at the Broadview Center still looking for its first win after scoring 49 and 61 in two games. The Warriors' zone made them a 23-win team last season, but this season's offense has not given that defense anything to protect.

The Matchup

Merrimack visits UAlbany on Sunday afternoon at the Broadview Center in Albany, on ESPN+, with Merrimack a 2.5-point favorite, a total of 134.5, and the Warriors priced at -135 on the moneyline against UAlbany at +114. The records point the other way: the Great Danes are the unbeaten team in this game, and Merrimack is the one still looking for a win.

UAlbany beat Rhode Island College 74-67 at home and won 72-68 at Manhattan, and it has done it with two creators sharing the work. Tyler Jones has 39 points across the two games, Ollie Engen has 37 points and 14 assists, and Zacharie Matulu has pulled down 10 rebounds in each game. Merrimack lost 63-49 to Appalachian State on a neutral floor in Rock Hill and lost 71-61 to UMass Lowell at home, scoring 55 points a game across the two.

Jeremiah Anderson leads the Warriors with 22 points across the two games, and Denver Anglin is the only other Merrimack player in double figures in both. Last season, across the full season, Merrimack finished 23-11, scoring 68.5 points a game and allowing 66.5, and UAlbany finished 11-21, scoring 72.0 and allowing 72.9. Those are last season's numbers: Merrimack's defense was its identity a year ago, but this season's Warriors have scored in the 50s and low 60s while allowing 63 and 71, and UAlbany's backcourt has already produced on the road against a Division I opponent.

Key Factors

The total of 134.5 tells you what the market thinks of Merrimack's zone, and the zone is the game: if the Warriors set it and UAlbany has to solve it in the half court for 40 minutes, the Great Danes' creators are working against the defense that held Appalachian State to 63. But Merrimack has to score to make that matter, and through two games its offense has one player over 20 total points. Jones and Engen give UAlbany two separate ways to attack a set defense, and Matulu's rebounding has ended possessions at the other end, with 10 boards in each game so far.

The counterpoint is the softness inside UAlbany's 2-0: the home win came against Rhode Island College, a Division III team, and the Manhattan win was by four. If Merrimack's zone travels the way it did last season, when the Warriors allowed 66.5 points a game on a 23-win team, this becomes the grind the total expects, and a road favorite with a real defense only needs to win the last four minutes. The bet is that UAlbany's backcourt depth and home floor are worth more than a reputation Merrimack built last season, against an offense that has yet to reach 62 points.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.