Texas Southern Tigers vs Murray State Racers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Murray State is unbeaten and scoring in bunches, and Texas Southern's job in Murray is simply to keep a 27.5-point spread honest.

The Matchup

Murray State is 3-0 and playing the most entertaining basketball in the Missouri Valley so far, scoring 93.7 points a game and allowing 64.0. Last season's Racers were a different animal: 20-13, scoring 83.1 a game, but allowing 80.3, a team that won shootouts rather than strangleholds. Blending the two seasons, as three games on their own demand, puts Murray State at plus 16.3 points a game: strong, and still a long way from the kind of edge a 27.5-point spread at home usually implies.

Texas Southern is 1-2 out of the SWAC, scoring 76.0 points a game and allowing a worrying 91.0, after a 12-18 season in which it scored 75.0 and allowed 78.0. Jason Kimbrough leads the Tigers at 15.3 points a game, Karris Bilal adds 3.3 assists a game, and Ben Vungo leads them at 8.0 rebounds a game. Murray State's star is Roman Domon, the best player in this game at 22.7 points a game, with Christian Jones at 4.7 assists a game and Brigham Rogers at 8.3 rebounds a game. Kimbrough, Bilal, Vungo, Domon, Jones, and Rogers all carry no injury designations into this game.

The CFSB Center is a hard place to visit, and Murray's crowd will expect a rout. The Tigers' only job is to make the Racers keep playing starters and keep defending honestly into the second half.

Key Factors

The first factor is how much of Murray State's profile is three games old. The Racers' defense has improved from 80.3 allowed last season to 64.0 allowed this season, and that jump, more than the scoring, is what a 27.5-point spread is built on. Three games can show a real change, but they can also show a soft opening schedule, and Texas Southern scoring 76.0 a game is a sterner test than the number gives the Tigers credit for.

The second factor is Vungo on the glass. At 8.0 rebounds a game he nearly matches Rogers at 8.3, and a road underdog that rebounds its share keeps the favorite from stacking second chances, which is where buy-game margins usually balloon. Kimbrough at 15.3 points a game gives the Tigers a scorer who can answer a run with a basket of his own instead of a timeout and a prayer.

The honest counterpoint is Texas Southern's defense, because 91.0 points allowed a game is how a team loses by thirty without playing terribly on offense. Domon at 22.7 points a game is exactly the kind of scorer who feasts on a defense that cannot keep him out of the lane, and if Murray shoots the way it has for three games, the Tigers' scoring will not matter. The pick rests on the whole picture: a favorite being priced on its best three games against a visitor whose own last-season defense allowed 78.0, not 91.0.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.