Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 8

Miami (OH) averages 26.9 points per game and 8.8 yards per pass attempt behind David McComb, while Central Michigan manages 108.1 passing yards per game and leans on Angel Flores as both its top passer and rusher.

01The Matchup

Miami (OH) brings the most efficient passing game in this matchup to Mount Pleasant. The RedHawks are 4-3 and average 357.9 yards and 26.9 points per game, throwing for 216.4 yards per game at 8.8 yards per attempt.

David McComb has completed 65 of 103 passes for 1,121 yards with 7 touchdowns and 1 interception, Rodney Nelson leads the rushing attack with 348 yards, and Maleek Huggins averages 18.2 yards per catch with 309 yards on 17 receptions. Central Michigan is 3-4 and averages 292.4 yards and 16.6 points per game, built almost entirely on the run: the Chippewas rush for 184.3 yards per game but throw for 108.1 at 5.3 yards per attempt, and Angel Flores is both the leading passer, with 475 yards, and the leading rusher, with 618 yards and 4 touchdowns on 128 carries.

02Key Factors

Central Michigan has thrown 3 passing touchdowns in 7 games, so when the Chippewas fall behind schedule they have no second gear. Miami protects the ball better, with 5 giveaways and a plus-2 margin against 11 giveaways and a minus-1 margin for Central Michigan, and McComb has thrown 1 interception in 103 attempts.

Third down is nearly even, 34.8% for Central Michigan and 34.2% for Miami, which makes the per-play gap decisive: 8.8 yards per pass attempt against 5.3. Flores is the counterweight, because his 128 carries at volume can keep McComb on the sideline, and the Chippewas have intercepted 6 passes. Miami counters with 14 sacks, led by Grant Lyons with 4, against a one-man offense it can key on.

03The Pick

This total of 39.5 says points will be scarce, and in a low-scoring game the team that can create one explosive passing play holds the edge. Miami scores 10.3 more points per game, gains 65.5 more yards per game, and faces an offense where the quarterback is also the entire ground game. Laying 2.5 on the road is a modest price for the more complete team, especially one that has turned it over 6 fewer times than its opponent. Editorial pick: Miami (OH) -2.5.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.