NC State vs Stanford Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 8

CJ Bailey has thrown for 1,507 yards and NC State averages 33.0 points per game against a Stanford defense allowing 36.6 points per game. The Wolfpack are favored by 6.5 points at Stanford Stadium.

01The Matchup

NC State makes the cross-country trip to Stanford Stadium on Friday night with the far more productive offense in this game. The Wolfpack average 33.0 points and 426.3 yards per game behind quarterback CJ Bailey, who has thrown for 1,507 yards with 9 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Bailey spreads the ball to Keenan Jackson, who has 27 catches for 400 yards and 5 touchdowns, and Jayden Scott adds 358 rushing yards and 4 scores for a rushing attack averaging 168.5 yards per game with 14 rushing touchdowns.

Stanford counters at 3-4 with quarterback Davis Warren, who has thrown for 1,630 yards with 7 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions, plus running back Micah Ford at 529 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns. The Cardinal still average just 18.3 points per game. NC State is favored by 6.5 points on the road, with a total of 55.5.

02Key Factors

Stanford has struggled to stop anyone, and the splits show there is no safe down. The Cardinal allow 36.6 points and 452.0 yards per game, including 196.6 rushing yards per game, and they have given up 20 rushing touchdowns and 15 passing touchdowns in seven games. NC State can attack both ways, with 257.8 passing yards and 168.5 rushing yards per game, and the Wolfpack convert 51.1% on third down against a Stanford offense converting only 33.3%.

Stanford also brings little pressure, with just 4 team sacks all season, which should give Bailey time to work through his reads. The Cardinal path runs through Warren protecting the ball and Ford finishing drives, because Stanford averages only 103.4 rushing yards per game at 3.5 yards per carry and cannot afford to become one-dimensional. NC State allows 27.7 points per game, so Stanford will get chances, but the Wolfpack have 10 takeaways and the deeper set of scoring options.

03The Pick

Editorial pick: NC State -6.5. The Wolfpack need a win by at least 7 points on the road, and the defensive gap makes that a reasonable ask. Stanford allows 36.6 points and 452.0 yards per game, the weakest defensive profile NC State has on its side of this matchup, while the Wolfpack score 33.0 points per game with balance Stanford has not stopped: 14 rushing touchdowns and 11 passing touchdowns this season.

Stanford covering means losing by 6 or fewer, and that requires an offense averaging 18.3 points per game to keep pace while its defense finally slows a team converting 51.1% on third down. Warren has taken care of the ball with only 2 interceptions, so the Cardinal are live to trade scores early, but over four quarters the lean trusts the team that can score on the ground and through the air. The lean is NC State -6.5 at -110.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.