Minnesota vs Indiana Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9
Indiana is No. 4 in the AP Top 25 and welcomes Minnesota to Bloomington, but the Hoosiers have spent the last few weeks winning grinders instead of routs. Minnesota's defense has spent the whole season making favorites work for every point, and that is the tension here.
The Matchup
Minnesota's defense is the reason this spread has to be earned drive by drive. The Gophers allow 20.1 points per game and have taken the ball away 13 times, and they just held Iowa to 10 points in a 13-10 win. Indiana scores 33.6 points per game on the season, but the recent form tells a much tighter story, with 20 points against Nebraska, 15 against Ohio State in a loss, and 13 against Michigan.
Josh Hoover had a rough day against Michigan, completing 8 of 18 for 81 yards with an interception, a sharp drop from a season line of 1,741 yards with 18 touchdowns and only 1 interception. Turbo Richard carried 19 times for just 68 yards at 3.6 yards per carry in that Michigan game, and Indiana never looked comfortable.
If Minnesota holds Richard near that rate and forces Hoover to drive the full field all afternoon, Indiana's possessions get long and the clock becomes Minnesota's best friend. The Gophers do not need to stop Indiana cold. Minnesota needs the same kind of low, slow game Iowa just played, and the Gophers have already shown they can produce it.
Key Factors
Drake Lindsey gives Minnesota just enough offense to protect that defense. Lindsey has thrown for 1,472 yards with 9 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and Javon Tracy is his main target with 420 yards on 39 catches, including 7 catches against Iowa. The honest problem with this side is the ground game.
Minnesota rushes for only 100.1 yards per game at 3.4 yards per carry, and Indiana's defense allows 12.0 points per game with 28 sacks, so if the Hoosiers get an early lead, Lindsey has to throw into that pass rush and the cover likely dies on the spot. Indiana also rarely hands out gifts, because the Hoosiers so seldom trail that their quarterback has barely been forced into risk all season.
The case for Minnesota is that Indiana simply has not scored like a top-five team for three weeks now. Charlie Becker was held to 3 catches for 32 yards by Michigan after posting 726 yards and 8 touchdowns on the season, and a Minnesota team that forces turnovers at this rate needs only one short field to stay inside a number this large for four quarters.
Indiana is the better team, but the Hoosiers have stopped looking like a side that buries opponents early. Minnesota's defense can drag this into the kind of slow, uncomfortable game where a big spread never feels safe. Take Minnesota +19.5.
Game information
| DATE | Saturday (10/31) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 3:30 PM ET |
| HOW TO WATCH | CBS |
| VENUE | Memorial Stadium, Bloomington |
| SPREAD | Indiana -19.5 |
| TOTAL | 42.5 |
| MONEYLINE | Indiana -1,350 |
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