Mirra Andreeva vs Jessica Pegula Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - WTA Finals

Mirra Andreeva has won all six sets she has played at her first WTA Finals, dropping just 11 games along the way. Jessica Pegula saved a match point on Thursday just to reach her, and she has never played her before.

The Matchup

Mirra Andreeva is the No. 3 seed and the world No. 3, and her first WTA Finals has looked nothing like a debut. She beat Elina Svitolina 6-4, 6-0 on Monday, beat Aryna Sabalenka 6-4, 6-0 on Wednesday, and beat Diana Shnaider 6-2, 6-1 on Friday. She has not dropped a set all week, she has dropped just 11 games in those six sets, and she won the Indian Wells title at this same venue in 2025. She is 53-16 this season, and she is through to the semifinals as the winner of her group.

Jessica Pegula is the No. 5 seed and the world No. 5, and her week has been the other kind of story. She lost to Coco Gauff in three sets on Sunday, beat Marta Kostyuk 6-2, 7-5 on Tuesday, and saved a match point on Thursday before beating Linda Noskova 7-6, 4-6, 7-5 in a match that ran close to three hours. She is 52-15 this season, she reached the final of this event in 2022, and both women are active with no injury designation.

There is no series to consult. The two have never played a singles match, and Pegula said this week that they have only practiced together twice. Saturday is a first look for both of them, with a place in the final on the other side of it.

Key Factors

Andreeva's week is a margin story before it is anything else. Three opponents have won 11 games against her in six sets, and the matches have closed the same way: Sabalenka led her 4-1 on Wednesday and did not win another game, and Shnaider took three games on Friday. Her return starts return games on the front foot, her backhand holds up when pace comes at it, and she has turned small leads into routs all week instead of letting sets breathe.

Pegula's counter is the best rally tolerance left in the draw. She takes the ball early, she defends the baseline without giving up ground, and Thursday showed her refusal to lose a match she had no business winning: one point from the offseason, she found a way through in the third set. Her own read on Saturday was honest: she called Andreeva efficient this week, the opposite of her own matches, and said it is going to be tough.

What beats the pick is that version of Pegula, plus the unknown in a first meeting. If her serve holds up through the first rotation and the rallies lengthen, Andreeva has to win long points against a player who does not donate them, and a three-set match makes any favorite's games cushion fragile. Andreeva has shown no sign of that player yet. She has also never had to solve Pegula to learn whether she is one.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.