Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs Oklahoma Sooners Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Oklahoma lost its home opener to East Texas A&M and scored 64 points doing it. Now the Sooners are asked to win by nearly 40 against Mississippi Valley State, a team playing its first game of the season.

The Matchup

Mississippi Valley State visits Oklahoma on Friday night at the Lloyd Noble Center in Norman, on SECN+, with Oklahoma a 38.5-point favorite and a total of 148.5. This is the Delta Devils' first game of the season. For Oklahoma, it is a chance to erase an opener the Sooners would rather forget.

Oklahoma finished 21-16 last season, scoring 82.9 points a game and allowing 77.4. Mississippi Valley State finished 3-30, scoring 64.2 and allowing 83.0. Only one of these teams has given anyone a current look, and it was not a good one. The Delta Devils have not played yet, so last season is all anyone has on them. Oklahoma has played, and the one look was rough: a 68-64 home loss to East Texas A&M, in a game where the Sooners scored 64 points and never found a rhythm.

A spread this large is really a bet on the favorite's offense for forty straight minutes. Oklahoma's offense just spent its opener proving it can stall for long stretches at home, and that is a shaky foundation for a number pushing forty.

Key Factors

Oklahoma's opener is the argument, because the problems were specific. Pop Isaacs led the Sooners with 15 points and Derrion Reid added 14 points with 10 rebounds and 3 blocks, and after those two the scoring dried up. The starting guards around them shot poorly, the team turned the ball over, and East Texas A&M, a team Oklahoma was supposed to handle, controlled the game late. A favorite that needs a bounce-back shooting night just to look normal is being asked here to look dominant for two full halves.

Mississippi Valley State's case is simpler and more honest: the Delta Devils do not need to be good, they need to be ordinary. Guards Eli Pippins and AJ Abrams lead a roster playing its first game with fresh legs, while Oklahoma plays on a short turnaround from a loss that stings.

Every slow Oklahoma possession, every empty trip in the middle of the second half, and every minute the Sooners spend with reserves on the floor works for the road team at this number. The total of 148.5 also hints at a game the market does not expect to turn into a track meet.

The counterpoint is Mississippi Valley State's own history, and it is ugly. The Delta Devils won 3 games last season and allowed 83.0 points a game, and teams with that profile do get buried in buildings like this, especially in a season opener against an angry favorite.

If Oklahoma shoots the way it did for most of last season instead of the way it shot on Monday, this cover is gone by halftime. The bet is that an offense that scored 64 points at home four days ago does not suddenly produce the sustained forty-minute rout this spread requires.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.