Missouri State vs Florida International Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 10

FIU cannot score and Missouri State cannot defend, and something has to give in Miami. The Panthers allow 20.4 points a game, one of the stingiest marks in Conference USA, and just lost by 39 to Liberty. The Bears allow 30.9 and just shut out Sam Houston. This is a game between two teams' worst units.

The Matchup

FIU's defense is the reason the Panthers are favored at all. They allow 20.4 points per game, and their problem is entirely on the other side: 18.9 points scored per game, the worst offense in this matchup. JJ Kohl has thrown for 1,801 yards with 11 touchdowns, Maguire Anderson has 596 receiving yards, and Devonte Lyons adds 435 rushing yards, so the pieces are not hopeless - the finishing is.

FIU has lost three straight, to Liberty by 39 and to Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State by three each, which tells you the defense keeps them in games the offense cannot close. Missouri State is the mirror image.

The Bears score 24.4 points per game behind Henry Belin IV's 1,071 passing yards and Isaiah Myers, a genuine number one receiver at 873 yards, but they allow 30.9 per game and gave up 61 to Delaware two weeks ago. Their 24-3 win over Sam Houston last week says more about Sam Houston. Kohl against this secondary is the best quarterback-to-matchup pairing FIU has had in a month.

Key Factors

Home field and the defensive gap are the case, and the counterpoint is FIU's offense itself. Laying points with a team that scored 10 last week and 23 and 24 in its two games before that requires believing the matchup unlocks something, and Myers gives Missouri State the single best offensive player in the game. If the Bears score first and FIU has to chase, Kohl throwing into a defense that can sit on routes is a bad afternoon.

But Missouri State's defense has made every opposing quarterback look good, the Bears are traveling to Miami, and FIU's defense has been the most reliable unit on either roster all season. The Panthers do not need an offensive awakening. They need a normal game from Kohl and their usual defensive standard, and against this opponent that combination wins by a touchdown.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.