Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - UFC Fight Night

Marcos Degli has finished 14 of his 15 career wins, eight of them in the first round. Mitch Raposo wins fights the other way entirely: four UFC wins, every one of them on the cards, three by split decision.

The Matchup

Degli arrives with a finisher's record and no UFC minutes at all. He is 26 and 15-3, and the shape of the record is extreme: nine knockouts, five submissions, eight first-round finishes, and exactly one decision win in fifteen victories. Men who fight like that either end the night early or spend it chasing, and Saturday is his Octagon debut, against the No. 12 flyweight in the world.

Raposo is the division's argument for patience. He is 11-3 and ranked No. 12, and every one of his four UFC wins went the full fifteen minutes: split decisions over Lima and Su Mudaerji, a unanimous decision over Azat Maksum, and another split decision over Allan Nascimento in June.

He lands only 1.91 significant strikes a minute and has landed one takedown in 25 UFC attempts, and he keeps winning anyway, behind 61 percent striking defense and 68 percent takedown defense. His fights average 13:38, because almost all of them go long.

Key Factors

The question is whether finishing regional opposition translates. Degli's 14 finishes came outside the UFC, and the men Raposo has outlasted include Su Mudaerji, who sits one place above him at No. 11, beaten over three full rounds. A debutant who has won one decision in his life has to bank rounds against that, or finish a man who has spent four UFC fights refusing to be finished early.

The honest risk runs the other way. Raposo's split decisions are coin flips he happened to win, his output is as low as a ranked flyweight can survive on, and a debutant who damages him early can take rounds on the cards even without the finish. Degli does not need fifteen good minutes. He needs one bad Raposo minute, and his career says he finds it against most men. He has just never had to find it against a ranked opponent whose whole game is denying him that minute.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.