Morgan State Lady Bears vs Oklahoma State Cowgirls Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1
No. 22 Oklahoma State beat Southern by 42 in its opener, and Morgan State scored 38 points at Colorado two nights ago. Friday night at Gallagher-Iba Arena, the Cowgirls are favored by 50.5, a number that asks less about talent than about how long the starters stay in.
The Matchup
Morgan State arrives in Stillwater with a split personality after two games. The Lady Bears opened at home with a 103-47 win over Washington Adventist, a game where the scoring came from everywhere: Dru Carlton scored 14 points, Jahzara Leamon added 12, and Shani Clark, Merit Innocent and Alexiz Graise scored 11, 10 and 10.
Two nights later at Colorado, the same team scored 38 points in an 83-38 loss, with Mihjae Hayes the only player in double figures at 10. Hayes, Carlton, Leamon, Clark, Innocent and Graise carry no injury designations for Friday.
Oklahoma State's opener had no such mystery. The Cowgirls, ranked No. 22, beat Southern 81-39 at Gallagher-Iba Arena behind Audi Crooks, who scored 22 points on 9 of 10 shooting, with Nene Ndiaye adding 16 and Stailee Heard 12. The Cowgirls outrebounded Southern 54-30.
Last season Oklahoma State finished 24-10, scoring 81.1 points per game and allowing 64.2, while Morgan State finished 5-26, scoring 54.7 and allowing 71.6. Morgan State's own two games frame the gap: a ranked power conference team at home against a team from the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference playing its third game of the week.
Key Factors
The clock on the starters is where a spread this size is decided. Crooks played 24 minutes in a 42-point win on Monday, and that is how Oklahoma State games like this go: the margin is built early, the rotation opens up, and the last stretch is played by reserves against reserves. A spread of 50.5 does not ask Oklahoma State to win, which it will. It asks the Cowgirls to keep building for forty minutes, and their own opener is evidence they do not play that way once a game is settled.
Morgan State's shooting is the honest worry. A team that scored 38 points and shot 25 percent at Colorado on Wednesday can lose this game by any number if the shots go that cold again, and Oklahoma State's defense, which allowed 64.2 points per game last season, is a sterner test than Colorado's. The Lady Bears are also finishing a hard week, with the Colorado trip two days before this one, while Oklahoma State has been home since Monday.
What Morgan State has going for it is balance and a low bar. Five players scored in double figures in the opener, the scoring does not die with one cold hand, and the Lady Bears do not need to play well to cover this number. They need an ordinary night, a few made threes from Carlton, and a fourth quarter played at walking pace. Against a number this size, ordinary is enough. Take the points.
Oklahoma State is the far better team and should win comfortably at home, and Morgan State's night at Colorado showed how ugly this matchup can get. But a number past 50 is settled by benches and late possessions, and the Cowgirls had no need to push their starters in their own opener. Take the points with Morgan State Lady Bears +50.5 at -110.
Game Information
| Date | Friday (11/6) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 5:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | ESPN+ |
| Venue | Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater |
| Spread | Oklahoma State Cowgirls -50.5 |
| Total | 139.5 |
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