Portland State Vikings vs Seattle U Redhawks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Seattle U is favored by double digits at home, and Portland State just scored 111 points with six players in double figures. Saturday at the Redhawk Center has the strangest line of the night.

The Matchup

Portland State visits Seattle U on Saturday night at the Redhawk Center in Seattle, on ESPN+, with Seattle U a 10.5-point favorite and a total of 144.5. Portland State is 1-0 after hanging 111 points on Lewis and Clark in a 111-59 win. Seattle U is 0-1 after losing 74-73 at Hawaii. It is a Big Sky against West Coast Conference meeting, and the line respects Seattle U's home floor and last season's defense far more than anything either team has done this week.

Last season Portland State went 20-11, scoring 76.6 points a game and allowing 70.3, while Seattle U went 21-14, scoring 72.1 and allowing 67.3. With one game played on each side, the team numbers in this preview lean heavily on last season, with the openers mixed in. Portland State's opener ran through a rebuilt frontcourt of KC Ibekwe and Luke Kearney, while Seattle U leaned on Will Heimbrodt and Mason Williams, both new to carrying this program, so the early evidence is thin and the opener film matters more than usual.

That film is lopsided. Portland State put six players in double figures: Ibekwe scored 17 on 7-of-8 shooting with 8 rebounds, Kearney scored 17 with 3 threes, Yaroslav Nikonov scored 14 with 5 assists, and Trevor Frank scored 13. Seattle U got 20 points each from Heimbrodt and Williams in the Hawaii loss, and Halvine Dzellat added 10 points with 10 rebounds, but nobody else reached double figures.

Key Factors

Balance is the mechanism in this pick. A defense can game-plan for one scorer, and Seattle U has two in Heimbrodt and Williams. It cannot game-plan for six, and Portland State's scoring comes from every spot: Ibekwe inside, Kearney and Frank from the arc, Nikonov creating for others.

Seattle U allowed 74 points at Hawaii after allowing 67.3 a game last season, and guarding a team that shares the ball this well asks more of that defense than one road game in Honolulu did. Getting 10.5 points with the team that has more ways to score is the position to be in.

The second piece is how Seattle U has to win to cover. The Redhawks play slowly and defend, and a slow home favorite laying double digits has to be efficient for forty minutes, because there are fewer possessions to build a cushion with.

Seattle U shot its way to 73 points at Hawaii with real help from nobody beyond its top three, and Tyler Boston's 6 assists came with 3 turnovers against pressure. The total of 144.5 fits a controlled game, and in a controlled game the underdog's balanced scoring keeps every run short and the spread in play until the final minute.

The counterpoint is Seattle U's defense at home, which has been this program's identity for years. The Redhawks allowed 67.3 points a game last season, Heimbrodt blocked 2 shots at Hawaii while scoring 20, and Dzellat controlled the glass with 10 rebounds.

Portland State's 111 points came against Lewis and Clark, a Division III visitor, which is no preparation for a set WCC defense in a small, loud gym. If Seattle U turns this into the grind it wants, holds the Vikings under 65, and gets its usual home whistle, the favorite covers and the opener looks like the mirage it may have been.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.