Murray State Racers vs Tennessee State Tigers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Tennessee State won the Ohio Valley last season, reached the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1994, and rebuilt with a former five-star center and a proven senior guard. Murray State is laying 8.5 at a neutral Pentagon, and that number asks a lot.

The Matchup

Murray State is an 8.5-point favorite over Tennessee State at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, with a total of 161.5 and the Racers at -325 on the moneyline. It is a neutral floor and a season opener for both teams in the Field of 68 Opening Day Marathon, tipping at 10:30 a.m. Central on YouTube. Neither team has played a game that counts, so last season is the starting point.

Tennessee State finished 23-10, scoring 80.3 points per game and allowing 74.4, and won the Ohio Valley tournament and a share of the regular-season title on its way to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1994. Murray State finished 20-13, scoring 83.1 and allowing 80.3. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now. Tennessee State returned just one rotational piece from its championship team.

What the Tigers built instead is the most interesting roster in their league. Center Aaron Bradshaw, a 7-foot-1 former five-star recruit who was ranked No. 5 in the class of 2023 by ESPN and Rivals, averaged career highs of 8.6 points and 4.2 rebounds at Memphis last season and now drops down a level, where his size changes games.

Guard Ty-Laur Johnson averaged 14.6 points and 4.3 assists at San Diego last season and takes over the offense. Tennessee State then beat Oakland 89-75 in an exhibition, a real opponent rather than a lower-division tune-up.

Murray State's case starts with its offense, which scored 83.1 points per game last season, and with history: the Racers have won the last eight meetings with Tennessee State, all from the years when both schools shared the Ohio Valley. That history is real, and it is also old. Neither of these rosters played in those games, and the program arriving with a trophy from last March is Tennessee State.

Key Factors

Murray State's problem is the other end. The Racers allowed 80.3 points per game last season, and a defense that leaky gives an underdog oxygen for 40 minutes. Tennessee State does not need to outplay Murray State. It needs Johnson to keep the Tigers organized, Bradshaw to make the Racers shoot over length, and the game to stay within two possessions into the final minutes, where 8.5 points is a wide cushion.

The environment helps the underdog too. Tennessee State's games averaged 154.7 points last season and Murray State's averaged 163.4, and the total of 161.5 expects a Murray State kind of game. A faster game gives the favorite more chances to build a margin, but it also gives a talented underdog more chances to answer, and Tennessee State has the individual talent to answer in this matchup, which is not true of most teams catching this many points.

The counterpoint is cohesion, and it is a real one. Tennessee State is nearly an entirely new team, and new teams in openers can spend a half figuring out who shoots.

If Murray State's guards get downhill early and Bradshaw spends the morning in foul trouble, the Racers can win this by double digits, because their offense is proven at this level in a way Tennessee State's new group is not yet. That is the game where this pick loses. It asks the favorite to be sharp for 40 minutes in an opener, though, and the points are the safer side of that bet.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.