Ohio State Buckeyes vs BYU Cougars Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

No. 25 BYU and Ohio State open the season on a neutral floor in Salt Lake City with a spread under one possession. BYU's backcourt has scored all preseason, Ohio State spent its last exhibition getting pushed around on the glass, and the Buckeyes' lead guard rolled an ankle in the final exhibition.

The Matchup

BYU is a 1.5-point favorite over Ohio State at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City on Monday night, with a total of 160.5 and the Cougars at -135 on the moneyline. It is a neutral floor and a season opener for both teams, on FS1. BYU starts the season ranked No. 25 in the AP poll.

Neither team has played a game that counts, so last season is the starting point. BYU finished 23-12, scoring 83.5 points per game and allowing 75.4. Ohio State finished 21-13, scoring 79.3 and allowing 72.6. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

BYU's backcourt is the story of its preseason. Guard Robert Wright III, who averaged 18.1 points per game last season, scored 17 points with 7 assists against Nebraska and 19 points against UNLV in the Cougars' two exhibitions.

Guard Collin Chandler, a Kentucky transfer, scored 19 and 23 in those same two games. Ohio State has to guard both of them from the opening tip, Guard John Mobley Jr. left Ohio State's exhibition against Butler on October 25 after rolling his ankle, a play he called minor afterward, and no report since has put his opener in doubt.

The other Ohio State worry is the glass. Butler outrebounded the Buckeyes 42-33 in that exhibition and grabbed 19 offensive rebounds. BYU can punish exactly that. Forward Jaxon Kohler, who averaged 12.5 points and 8.9 rebounds at Michigan State last season, had his eligibility cleared by a court injunction on October 20, and he gives the Cougars a second-chance scorer inside.

Key Factors

The first thing is how close these teams are, and where they are not. Last season's scoring differentials were nearly even, BYU at 8.1 points per game and Ohio State at 6.7. On paper this is close to a coin flip, a better Ohio State defense against a better BYU offense. The separation is in current form: Wright and Chandler have been scoring all preseason, while Ohio State may open without its lead guard at full strength.

The second thing is the possession battle. A team that just allowed 19 offensive rebounds in an exhibition has a problem that does not fix itself in a week, and BYU has the size to attack it, with Kohler's 8.9 rebounds per game from his Michigan State season now sitting in the Cougars' frontcourt. Extra possessions are how a 1.5-point favorite builds a working margin.

The honest counterpoint is what BYU no longer has. Last season's 83.5 points per game were scored with AJ Dybantsa on the roster, and the No. 1 pick in the draft now plays in Washington.

If Wright and Chandler are not enough creation on their own, and if Mobley plays and steadies Ohio State, the Buckeyes have the better defense in this game and can win it outright. That is the game where this pick loses. It asks a lot of a team that just lost the rebounding battle to Butler by 9, though, and BYU's guards are the in-form unit in this matchup.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.