Colorado vs Oklahoma State Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 8

Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker has thrown for 1,940 yards and 16 touchdowns for an offense averaging 517.7 yards and 37.2 points per game. The Cowboys are 13.5-point home favorites over Colorado with a total of 55.5.

01The Matchup

Colorado (2-4) heads to Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater to face Oklahoma State (4-2) under the lights, and the offensive gap is the widest on the Saturday board. Oklahoma State averages 517.7 yards and 37.2 points per game, powered by Drew Mestemaker, who is 136 of 203 for 1,940 yards with 16 touchdowns and 6 interceptions for an offense averaging 9.5 yards per pass attempt.

Caleb Hawkins adds 123 carries for 592 yards on the ground, where the Cowboys post 188.2 rushing yards per game, and Wyatt Young has 32 catches for 561 yards and 5 touchdowns. Colorado averages 394.2 yards but only 19.5 points per game, with top receiver Joseph Williams at 37 catches for 508 yards and 5 touchdowns trying to keep pace almost on his own.

02Key Factors

Colorado moves the ball better than it scores, and that disconnect decides this matchup. The Buffaloes gain 253.8 passing yards per game yet manage just 5 rushing touchdowns and 19.5 points per game, and they have given the ball away 13 times against 11 takeaways.

Oklahoma State, by contrast, finishes: 17 passing touchdowns and 8 rushing touchdowns behind a line that has allowed only 5 sacks, keeping Mestemaker clean to attack a Colorado defense that allows 226.8 passing yards per game. Colorado does bring pressure, with 14 sacks led by Lamont Lester Jr. and his 4 sacks, and the Buffaloes allow a respectable 357.2 yards per game, but they also carry 55 penalties for 506 yards, mistakes a 37.2-point offense at home will punish.

03The Pick

Editorial pick: Oklahoma State -13.5. This is a big number, but the scoring math supports it: Oklahoma State scores 37.2 points per game and allows 23.7, while Colorado scores 19.5 and allows 25.7, and Mestemaker's 1,940 yards with 16 touchdowns is a different class of quarterback play than Colorado has answered all season.

Hawkins at 592 rushing yards gives the Cowboys balance so Colorado cannot sit on the pass, and a turnover margin of minus-2 with 13 giveaways is a dangerous profile on the road in Stillwater. At -13.5 the Cowboys need to win by 14 or more to cover, with no push in play, and their 517.7 yards per game give them the volume to clear it.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.