Rutgers vs Wisconsin Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 10

Wisconsin allows 17.1 points a game and scores 23.6, which is how a team becomes a 17.5-point favorite in a game with a 45.5 total. Rutgers scores 27.8 and allows 32.6, so the Scarlet Knights either keep this respectable with their offense or get buried by their defense. The offense has been the story of their season.

The Matchup

Wisconsin's defense is excellent and its offense is a rumor, and both facts are in the spread. The Badgers allow 17.1 points per game, beat USC 24-7 two weeks ago, and then lost 30-0 at Iowa, a shutout that captures their season: Colton Joseph has thrown for 1,346 yards with 11 touchdowns and is also the team's leading rusher at 371 yards, with Tyrell Henry at 397 receiving yards, for an offense scoring 23.6 points per game.

Rutgers is the opposite construction. The Scarlet Knights score 27.8 points per game behind Antwan Raymond, who has rushed for 733 yards, and KJ Duff, who has 774 receiving yards, with Dylan Lonergan throwing for 1,066 yards and 10 touchdowns. Their defense allows 32.6 points per game, which is how a team with that offense sits at 2-6. Rutgers just played Michigan within a touchdown in a 28-21 loss, and its offense has scored at least 21 in four straight games.

Key Factors

Camp Randall is a hard trip and Wisconsin's defense could absolutely smother Rutgers for a half; if the Badgers' front wins early downs and Joseph's legs grind out long drives, a 27-7 afternoon that covers is a real script. That is the honest case for the favorite. But laying 17.5 requires Wisconsin's offense to produce three scores of margin, and this offense produced zero points at Iowa and seven against UCLA in two of its last three games.

Rutgers does not need to stop Wisconsin. It needs Raymond and Duff to produce two or three scoring drives, which they have done against better defenses than this, and every Rutgers score makes the favorite's math harder because the Badgers cannot answer quickly. Three-score spreads belong to teams that can score three unanswered touchdowns. Wisconsin has not been that team in a month.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.