New Mexico State Aggies vs UTEP Miners Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

UTEP and New Mexico State meet in El Paso with both teams at 1-1, the Miners fresh off a home win and the Aggies fresh off a humbling trip to Gonzaga.

The Matchup

New Mexico State visits UTEP on Thursday night at the Don Haskins Center in El Paso, with UTEP a 3.5-point favorite, a total of 142.5, on MW+. This is the border rivalry, and both teams arrive at 1-1 with one respectable result and one they would like back.

UTEP is scoring 77.5 points a game and allowing 72.0 this season. The Miners lost 84-76 at Northern Kentucky, then came home and beat Incarnate Word 79-60, a defensive performance that looked like the team they want to be. Last season UTEP finished 11-20, scoring 69.3 points a game and allowing 72.4, so an offense already ahead of that pace in November is a genuine step, provided it survives a better opponent than Incarnate Word.

New Mexico State is scoring 70.5 points a game and allowing 87.5 this season, and that defensive number needs its context named out loud: the Aggies beat Western New Mexico 73-66 at home, then went to Gonzaga and lost 109-68. One night in Spokane can wreck an early average all by itself. Last season the Aggies finished 16-16 in Conference USA, scoring 75.1 and allowing 72.0, a much sturdier team than the Gonzaga score suggests. Cam McDaniels and Mark Lavrenov both carry no injury designations into Thursday.

Key Factors

McDaniels gives UTEP the best player on the floor right now. He scored 27 points against Incarnate Word on 10-of-18 shooting with 4 three-pointers, and he did it without a turnover-heavy night, which matters against an Aggies defense desperate to force mistakes after the Gonzaga film. Youssouf Traore added 12 points and 10 rebounds in that win, and Reese Miller ran the team with 11 points, 7 assists and 4 steals. That is a complete home performance: a scorer, a rebounder, and a guard who disrupts.

New Mexico State's answer is Mark Lavrenov, who scored 19 points at Gonzaga on a night when almost nothing else worked. Lavrenov producing against that defense says the Aggies have at least one option UTEP must scheme for, and Jae'Coby Osborne added 10 points on 4-of-5 shooting in the same game. The Aggies' problem is the other end. A team allowing 87.5 points a game, even with the Gonzaga caveat, has to prove it can get consecutive stops in a loud building before it earns trust as a short road underdog.

The counterpoint cuts at UTEP's thin resume. Northern Kentucky beat the Miners by 8 on the road, and Incarnate Word is the kind of opponent that makes home teams look organized. If Lavrenov gets Traore in foul trouble early, UTEP's rebounding edge goes with him, and this becomes the kind of rivalry game that swings on one late possession. Short favorites at home are still the right side when the visitor's defense is the shakiest unit in the game, and right now that unit belongs to New Mexico State.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.