UTEP Miners vs Northern Kentucky Norse Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Northern Kentucky scored 83.1 points per game last season and UTEP scored 69.3, yet the Miners are favored at a neutral Pentagon in the first meeting between these schools. The Norse are young and rebuilt, but the gap in last season's scoring is the story.

The Matchup

UTEP is a 1.5-point favorite over Northern Kentucky at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, with a total of 148.5 and the Miners at -135 on the moneyline. It is a neutral floor, a season opener for both teams in the Field of 68 Opening Day Marathon, tipping at 1 p.m. Central on YouTube, and the first meeting ever between the two schools. Neither team has played a game that counts, so last season is the starting point.

Northern Kentucky finished 20-14, scoring 83.1 points per game and allowing 77.5. UTEP finished 11-20, scoring 69.3 and allowing 72.4. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now. The Miners have also changed leagues, moving to the Mountain West this season.

Northern Kentucky's rebuild is the honest unknown. The Norse brought back roughly a tenth of last season's production, and their league's coaches picked them ninth in the preseason poll. What the new group did in its exhibition was score: forward Noah Pagotto put up 19 points and 7 rebounds against UC Clermont, and forward Donovan Rakotonanahary added 13 points, in a runaway win over an overmatched opponent.

UTEP is nearly as new, with just two players back from last season's team, and the Miners' problem last season was scoring: 69.3 points per game, with a defense that allowed 72.4 and kept them in games their offense could not finish. A first meeting between two rebuilt teams, in a building neither has played in, usually rewards the side that can score. Last season, that was Northern Kentucky by a wide margin.

Key Factors

The scoring gap is the whole handicap. Nearly 14 points per game separated these offenses last season, and while both rosters turned over, UTEP is being asked to lay points on a neutral floor with an offense that has not yet proven it can score against Division I competition. Northern Kentucky's defense allowed 77.5 points a game, so the Miners will get their chances. The question is whether they can take enough of them.

The total tells the same story from the other side. Northern Kentucky's games averaged 160.6 points last season and UTEP's averaged 141.7, and 148.5 sits between them, closer to a UTEP game. A slower game puts a premium on half-court execution, where a young Norse team is a risk. It also means a small spread like this one can flip on a single late run, and the team with more ways to score is likelier to own that run.

The counterpoint is that Northern Kentucky's returning core is so thin that last season's scoring may say almost nothing about this team, and its exhibition points came against UC Clermont, not a Division I defense. UTEP defended well enough last season to win a game played in the 60s, and if the Norse's new guards turn the ball over against that pressure, the Miners cover a short number without playing well. This is a lean on a program's scoring habits and on a favorite that has not earned the benefit of the doubt, not a strong opinion about two rosters nobody has seen.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.