Nicholls Colonels vs UAB Blazers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Nicholls scored 110 points in its opener against a non-Division I opponent, so discount the margin heavily. What survives the discount is a deep, careful offense visiting a UAB team that just gave up 99 points at a neutral site.

The Matchup

Nicholls visits UAB on Friday evening at Bartow Arena in Birmingham, on ESPN+, with UAB a 13.5-point favorite and a total of 155.5. Nicholls beat the North American Stallions 110-56 on Monday, and that opener deserves an honest reading. North American is a non-Division I program, so the 54-point margin proves almost nothing about how Nicholls plays against real competition. What it does show is how the Colonels score, and that part matters.

UAB finished 20-12 last season, scoring 79.2 points a game and allowing 73.8. Nicholls finished 14-19, scoring 72.4 and allowing 74.9. For UAB, the current evidence is one game old and it points the other way. UAB's opener was against a real opponent and it went badly: the Blazers lost 99-78 to McNeese at a neutral site in Rock Hill, allowing 99 points to a Southland team that attacked them from the opening minutes.

So the favorite is priced on last season's 20 wins, while its only current evidence is a defense that could not get stops against a team from the underdog's own conference. Nicholls does not have to be better than UAB for forty minutes. It has to be the careful, balanced team it looked like on Monday, on a night when UAB still has to prove it can guard anybody.

Key Factors

Nicholls' ball security and balance are the argument, and both showed up even against weak opposition. Sheridan Sharp scored 14 points on 5-of-7 shooting with 6 assists and no turnovers, running an offense that put 13 different players in the scoring column.

Arop Arop added 12 points on 6-of-7 shooting with 9 rebounds, and Jordan Matthews scored 12 while going 4-of-9 from three. When scoring comes from that many places and the point guard does not give possessions away, a favorite cannot load up on one man or wait for mistakes to build its margin.

UAB's problem is at the defensive end, with a number attached: 99 points allowed against McNeese in Rock Hill, where Larry Johnson scored 31 against the Blazers and McNeese shot its way to separation early. Elijah Duval was UAB's best player in the loss with 15 points and 5 assists, and Justyn Fernandez added 11, so the Blazers can score.

Scoring was never the question. A team laying 13.5 at home has to string together stops, and UAB's opener offered no evidence that stops are coming against a Southland offense, because the Southland offense it just faced scored at will.

The counterpoint is the level gap in the openers, and it cuts hard against this pick if it holds. Nicholls built its confidence against a non-Division I team, while UAB played a strong McNeese team at a neutral site and now comes home to Bartow Arena, where it won regularly during a 20-win season.

If UAB's defense was a one-night road problem rather than a real flaw, the favorite's talent takes over and the margin grows late against a road team stepping up in class. The bet is that careful guard play and scoring depth travel better than a shaky defense heals in four days.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.