UAB Blazers vs McNeese Cowboys Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

McNeese allowed 66.8 points per game last season, won its third straight Southland tournament, and watched its lead guard score 30 in the final exhibition. UAB brings a 20-win team and a new roster into the toughest defensive matchup on the marathon card.

The Matchup

McNeese is a 3.5-point favorite over UAB at the Rock Hill Sports & Event Center in South Carolina, with a total of 148.5 and the Cowboys at -180 on the moneyline. It is a neutral floor and a season opener for both teams in the Field of 68 Opening Day Marathon, tipping at 4:30 p.m. Central on YouTube.

Neither team has played a game that counts, so last season is the starting point. McNeese finished 28-6, scoring 79.7 points per game and allowing 66.8. UAB finished 20-12, scoring 79.2 and allowing 73.8. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

The coaching matchup is the subplot everyone in Rock Hill knows. McNeese head coach Bill Armstrong is a UAB graduate who started his coaching career there as a graduate assistant under Andy Kennedy, and now he faces his mentor with a program that has won three straight Southland Conference tournaments. Armstrong has said he believes this McNeese team is more talented than last season's 28-win group.

The early evidence is Larry Johnson. The senior guard scored 30 points in the Cowboys' final exhibition, a 90-76 win over Southern, where forward Alier Maluk added 17 points and 10 rebounds. Johnson had already scored 19 points in a closed-scrimmage win over Louisiana. UAB's case is its offense. The Blazers scored 79.2 points per game last season and won 20 games in the American, and Kennedy's teams are rarely shy in openers. If any team in Rock Hill can score on McNeese, it is this one.

Key Factors

Defense is McNeese's calling card, and the gap is wide: 66.8 points allowed per game last season against UAB's 73.8. The Cowboys win by making every possession uncomfortable, and a UAB team full of new faces has had one short fall to prepare for that. The total of 148.5 sits between the teams' scoring environments from last season, McNeese's games at 146.5 points and UAB's at 153.0, and the side that drags the game toward its own number usually covers a short spread.

Johnson's form matters because McNeese's defense creates the chances and someone has to finish them. A guard coming off a 30-point exhibition and a strong scrimmage against a Division I opponent gives the Cowboys a proven finisher in a game where half-court points will be hard to find. Maluk's double-double in the same exhibition gives McNeese a second producer inside.

The counterpoint is real: the exhibition scoring came against Southern, and UAB is a steep step up in size and athleticism. Kennedy also knows Armstrong's system from the inside, having given him his start, and a coach who knows exactly what is coming can scheme against it.

If UAB's guards handle McNeese's pressure and turn this into a half-court scoring contest, the Blazers have the offense to win outright. The lean is that three years of tournament habits and the best defense on the card travel better than a new roster does.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.