North Carolina Central Eagles vs North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

No. 23 North Carolina is 0-2 and scored 39 points at South Carolina on Sunday, and the market still makes the Tar Heels a 46.5-point favorite over North Carolina Central. The Eagles make the short trip from Durham with a scorer who can keep them moving.

The Matchup

North Carolina's season has started with a thud. The Tar Heels are 0-2, losing 91-79 to Oklahoma in the opener and 84-39 at South Carolina on Sunday, and they have scored 59.0 points per game while allowing 87.5. Kate Harpring scored 21 points against Oklahoma but shot 3 of 16 at South Carolina, and Nyla Brooks has scored 13 points in both games.

It is a strange opening for a team ranked No. 23, and the Tar Heels come home to Carmichael Arena looking for a first win. Harpring and Brooks carry no injury designations for Wednesday.

North Carolina Central makes the short trip from Durham at 2-2, with home wins over Johnson C. Smith and Fayetteville State and road losses at Virginia Tech and UNC Wilmington. Victoria Morris has been the Eagles' engine: 21 points against Johnson C. Smith, 20 points and 11 rebounds against Fayetteville State on Monday, and a team-high 12 points at UNC Wilmington. Aysia Hinton scored 24 points with 5 three-pointers against Johnson C. Smith. Morris and Hinton carry no injury designations for Wednesday.

Last season explains the spread better than this season does. North Carolina went 28-8, scoring 74.6 points per game and allowing 59.1, and the market is still pricing that team. This season's Tar Heels have shot 34 percent and 25 percent in their two games and turned the ball over 41 times across them.

Central went 9-20 last season, scoring 62.3 and allowing 68.8, and Morris has given this season's team a scorer last season's group did not have. Two games do not erase a 28-win season, but the Tar Heels who take the floor Wednesday have not looked like that team yet.

Key Factors

Start with the simplest fact of the game: North Carolina is favored by 46.5, and North Carolina scored 39 points on Sunday. A team does not cover a number like this with defense alone; it has to score in the 80s, and nothing in the Tar Heels' first two games says that offense is close. They shot 25 percent at South Carolina with 24 turnovers, and Harpring, their best scorer, needed 26 shots to get her 21 points against Oklahoma.

Central's path is Morris and the clock. She has the ball in her hands constantly, which cuts both ways: she had 11 turnovers against Fayetteville State, and the Eagles turned it over 29 times at Virginia Tech and 28 at UNC Wilmington. Against a Tar Heel team that needs live-ball turnovers to score in transition, protecting the ball is the difference between a respectable loss and a rout. When Morris does get Central into its offense, she can score at every level, and Hinton's shooting gives her a release valve.

The case against Central is sitting in its own schedule. The Eagles lost by 46 at Virginia Tech and by 34 at UNC Wilmington, and a desperate, talented North Carolina team at home is exactly the kind of opponent that has buried them. If the Tar Heels' shots finally fall and the crowd gets into it, this could be the get-right game the market is pricing. The pick is that a team still searching for its offense does not find 47 points of margin in one night, even against an overmatched visitor.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.