North Carolina Tar Heels vs South Carolina Gamecocks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

No. 1 South Carolina scored 101 in Paris and nearly gave the game back, and No. 12 North Carolina lost its opener in the same building. Sunday at the Ally Tipoff in Charlotte, the Gamecocks are favored by 13.5 in a border rivalry South Carolina has owned lately, and the Tar Heels get their second straight game against a ranked SEC opponent.

The Matchup

Both of these teams opened the season in Paris, and they came home with opposite souvenirs. South Carolina, ranked No. 1, beat Maryland 101-93 on Monday in a game the Gamecocks led by 31 before Maryland stormed back late. North Carolina, ranked No. 12, lost to Oklahoma 91-79 in the same event, shooting 34 percent in its only game so far. They meet again on a neutral floor Sunday, at the Ally Tipoff in Charlotte, in the second game of the same doubleheader that starts with Kentucky and NC State.

South Carolina's Paris box score is a warning about depth. Joyce Edwards scored 23 points with 8 rebounds, Agot Makeer scored 20 on 8-of-10 shooting with 4 three-pointers, and Tessa Johnson and Jerzy Robinson scored 15 each, with Robinson's coming off the bench. The Gamecocks grabbed 20 offensive rebounds and shot 49 percent as a team. Edwards, Makeer, Johnson and Robinson carry no injury designations for Sunday.

North Carolina's loss had a different shape. Kate Harpring scored 21 points but needed 26 shots to get there, and she turned the ball over 7 times against Oklahoma's pressure. Nyla Brooks scored 13, Reniya Kelly scored 11 with 7 assists, and the Tar Heels took 40 three-pointers and made 11. They also pulled down 24 offensive rebounds, second chances that kept a bad shooting night from becoming a blowout. Harpring, Brooks and Kelly carry no injury designations.

Last season is the fuller file on both. South Carolina finished 36-4, scoring 85.6 points per game and allowing 57.8. North Carolina finished 28-8, scoring 74.6 and allowing 59.1, a defense nearly as stingy in a different league. South Carolina has won the last four meetings, three of them in the NCAA Tournament, and the Tar Heels have spent the week flying home from Paris to prepare for the one team they keep running into.

Key Factors

The glass decides how close this stays. South Carolina turned 20 offensive rebounds into a 31-point lead against Maryland, and North Carolina gave Oklahoma 53 rebounds in Paris while collecting 24 second chances of its own. This is a game between two teams that treat a missed shot as a pass to themselves. Whichever frontcourt wins that fight controls the pace, and the Tar Heels need the fight to be even, because their half-court shooting has not earned them any margin for error yet.

Harpring's efficiency is the second lever. North Carolina cannot beat South Carolina with its best player shooting 9-of-26 and giving the ball away, and Kelly's steady hand, 7 assists against 1 turnover in Paris, is the counterweight the Tar Heels have to lean on. South Carolina will send size at Harpring on every catch, the way it does with every star it faces, and North Carolina's supporting shooters, who went 11-of-40 from three as a team in Paris, have to punish the help.

The counterpoint is South Carolina's sheer depth of scoring. Five Gamecocks reached double figures against the No. 20 team in the country, and a team that scores 101 in its opener can end a cover in one short burst. North Carolina also allowed 91 points in Paris, and if the Tar Heels defend Sunday the way they defended Oklahoma, no amount of offensive rebounding saves the points.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.