North Texas vs Navy Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 8

North Texas averages 533.8 yards and 42.2 points per game behind Tayven Jackson and his 1,868 passing yards, while Navy runs for 298.5 yards per game behind Jackson Gutierrez and his 644 rushing yards.

01The Matchup

The highest total on this board, 63.5, fits two offenses that stress a defense in opposite ways. North Texas is 4-2 and averages 533.8 yards and 42.2 points per game, throwing for 347.0 yards at 9.5 yards per attempt and running for 186.8 at 5.1 per carry. Tayven Jackson has completed 143 of 198 passes for 1,868 yards with 15 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, Jahiem White has rushed for 687 yards and 9 touchdowns on 96 carries, and Justin Stevenson has 453 receiving yards and 5 scores.

Navy is 2-4 and averages 414.0 yards and 28.2 points per game, with 298.5 of those yards on the ground at 5.7 per carry. Jackson Gutierrez is the whole operation, with 559 passing yards and 6 touchdowns plus 644 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns on 123 carries.

02Key Factors

Navy protects its formula with efficiency on the ground, but the turnover ledger is lopsided: the Midshipmen have 9 giveaways against 3 takeaways for a minus-6 margin, the worst in this set of games, while North Texas sits at plus-1 with 8 takeaways. Extra possessions are poison against an offense converting 48.8% on third down.

Navy counters by shrinking the game, because Gutierrez and the ground attack can hold the ball, and Navy passes for 9.2 yards per attempt on low volume, with Jordan Collins turning 5 catches into 189 yards and 3 touchdowns. Both defenses have pass rush, 15 sacks for North Texas and 14 for Navy, so the game turns on whether Navy can finish long drives without a mistake.

03The Pick

Navy at home with that ground game is never a comfortable fade, and the Midshipmen should score their share. The issue is margin for error: a minus-6 turnover team facing a 42.2-point offense cannot afford the empty possessions its season profile keeps producing.

North Texas is balanced enough to answer quickly, with 17 passing touchdowns and 14 rushing touchdowns, and needs only a field goal of separation. In a shootout setting, take the offense that can score both ways and protects the ball better. Editorial pick: North Texas -2.5.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.