Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week
Memphis has outscored teams by 10.7 points a game this season, and Oklahoma City arrives without Chet Holmgren. Two 6-2 teams meet at FedExForum, and only one of them is getting points at home.
The Matchup
Memphis is 6-2, scores 120.5 points per game, and allows 109.8, one of the best two-way profiles on this slate. Ty Jerome leads the Grizzlies at 27.4 points per game, Zach Edey anchors the paint, and GG Jackson and Jerami Grant give Memphis size and scoring on the wings. The Grizzlies' report is short. Isaiah Stewart is out with a knee bruise until around November 9, and Scotty Pippen Jr. is out with back soreness on the same timeline.
Oklahoma City is also 6-2, but the shape is different. The Thunder score 110.0 and allow 108.8, winning with defense while the offense searches for last season's level. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads them at 30.1 points per game, and Jalen Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein carry the next share of the load.
The report carries a star. Chet Holmgren is out with a knee injury until around January 2, and Cason Wallace is out after shoulder surgery until around March 2. Holmgren's absence removes Oklahoma City's rim protection and its best floor-spacing big in the same move.
Both teams have played fewer than ten games, so last season is blended in, and last season is where this price comes from. Oklahoma City outscored teams by 11.1 points per game on a 64-18 record in 2025-26, while Memphis was outscored by 6.0 on a 25-57 record. This season's numbers point the other way. DraftKings still makes Oklahoma City a 3.5-point road favorite at FedExForum, with a total of 225.5 and the Thunder at -165 on the moneyline.
Key Factors
Holmgren's absence is the specific problem. Memphis plays through Edey inside more than any team on this slate, and the Thunder without Holmgren have to protect the rim with Hartenstein alone and help from wings who then leave shooters. A home team that scores 120.5 a night does not need many of those rotations to break down before the game tilts.
The honest case for the favorite is Gilgeous-Alexander. He is the best player in this game, Oklahoma City's defense has been genuinely good even without Holmgren, and Memphis's 6-2 start came against a softer opening schedule than the Thunder faced. If the Grizzlies' scoring dips toward ordinary, the road team's defense can strangle this game possession by possession.
The setting matters too. Memphis's profile has been built at home, where its pace and its crowd turn runs into avalanches, and a road favorite laying points needs to survive at least one of those runs without its best defender. Getting 3.5 with the home team means Oklahoma City has to win by two possessions, on the road, short-handed at the exact position Memphis attacks.
The market is still pricing the Oklahoma City of last season, and this season's version scores well short of that pace and plays without Holmgren at the rim. Memphis at home, scoring in bunches and getting points, is the side. Take the Memphis Grizzlies +3.5 at -110.
Game Information
| Date | Friday (11/6) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 7:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | League Pass |
| Venue | FedExForum |
| Spread | Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 |
| Total | 225.5 |
| Moneyline | Oklahoma City Thunder -165 |
More Picks This Week
Player Props for This Game
2 props- Ty Jerome PointsOver 21.5 -101
- Ajay Mitchell PointsOver 18.5 -162
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