Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Memphis is scoring on everyone and Indiana arrives without its starting center and a backup point guard. The Grizzlies are the better team here by a distance, and the spread still looks a step short of the matchup.

The Matchup

Memphis is 6-1 and scores 123.0 points per game, the best mark in the league. The Grizzlies allow 110.1, defend their home floor at FedExForum, and get production from everywhere, with Zach Edey inside, Jaylen Wells and Cedric Coward on the wings, and Ty Jerome running the offense. Indiana is 2-6, scores 111.8, and allows 115.6. Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton are still a formidable pair, and Andrew Nembhard gives the Pacers a third ballhandler most teams would start.

Indiana's report is where this game tilts. Ivica Zubac is out with an ankle sprain, listed with a November 4 return date but carrying an out designation. Obi Toppin is out with back soreness, and T.J. McConnell is out with a hamstring strain until around November 9. That is Indiana's starting center, a rotation forward, and its backup point guard, all gone against the league's highest-scoring team. Memphis is missing Scotty Pippen Jr., out with back soreness, and Quinten Post is day-to-day.

DraftKings makes Memphis a 6.5-point home favorite, with a total of 230.5. Given the absences and Memphis's scoring, that number is more respectful of Indiana's top end than of its available rotation.

Key Factors

Edey against a Pacers team without Zubac is the matchup inside the matchup. Indiana has no natural body for him, and every double-team opens a Memphis shooter. The Grizzlies do not need Edey to score 30. They need him to bend the defense often enough that Indiana spends the night choosing which open shot to give up.

Indiana's counter is pace and its two stars. Haliburton can speed a game up until rotations break, and Siakam is the kind of matchup problem who scores against any coverage for stretches. If those two control enough possessions, Indiana can trade baskets with Memphis, and a team trading baskets with a 6.5-point favorite is usually covering.

The risk is depth. Indiana's missing pieces are exactly the players who keep the second unit afloat, and Memphis's bench minutes have been a strength all season. If the Grizzlies win the non-star minutes by a wide margin, the starters come back to a game that is already tilted.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.