Oklahoma City Thunder vs Portland Trail Blazers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is scoring 29.9 points a night for an 8-2 Oklahoma City team that keeps winning without two starters, and Portland scores 119.3 points a game in front of a home crowd that has mostly watched its team win on the road instead. The tension at Moda Center is whether Portland's offense can outrun the one defense that has slowed everyone it has seen.

The Matchup

Portland is 6-3, scores 119.3 points per game and allows 113.8, and the Trail Blazers have done most of their winning on the road, at 5-1, against a 1-2 mark in this building. Portland lost 125-103 at home to San Antonio on Saturday, its second straight loss.

Deni Avdija leads Portland at 22.3 points and 6.3 assists per game, and Donovan Clingan leads the team at 10.0 rebounds. Ja Morant is out with a left hamstring injury, Shaedon Sharpe is out after right knee surgery, and Vit Krejci is out with a left ankle injury.

Oklahoma City is 8-2, scores 112.2 and allows 104.2, and the Thunder have won four straight, the last a 114-75 win over Washington on Saturday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads Oklahoma City at 29.9 points and 4.9 assists per game, and Isaiah Hartenstein leads the team at 10.1 rebounds.

The Thunder's injury list is long and real. Chet Holmgren is out with a right knee injury, Jalen Williams is out with a fracture in his left leg, Cason Wallace is out after left shoulder surgery, and Thomas Sorber and Jaylin Williams are also out.

Portland has played nine games and Oklahoma City ten, so these numbers still carry last season attached to them. Last season Oklahoma City outscored teams by 11.1 points per game while Portland was outscored by 0.3, and the blend says the gap between these teams is wider than this season's first two weeks alone suggest. DraftKings makes Oklahoma City a 1.5-point road favorite at Moda Center, with a total of 226.5 and the Thunder at -122 on the moneyline.

Key Factors

Oklahoma City's defense has already answered the injury question. The Thunder allow 104.2 points per game and have won four straight with Holmgren and Williams out, so the short-handed version of this team is not a projection. It is the team that has been playing, and Hartenstein has held the middle down well enough that the defense has not slipped.

Portland's offense is the test that defense has to pass. The Trail Blazers score 119.3 points per game, Avdija scores and creates in the same possessions, and Clingan gives Portland second chances against a frontcourt missing its best rim protector. Portland's own defense is the leak on the other end, at 113.8 allowed, and it gave up 124 at Los Angeles and 125 to San Antonio in its last two games, both losses.

The honest counter is the building and the matchup inside. Portland is due a home performance after winning all season on the road, and if Clingan controls the glass against a thin Oklahoma City frontcourt, the Trail Blazers can keep this game in the half-court and take the crowd with them late. Gilgeous-Alexander is the reason that plan is hard to finish. He is the best closer in this game.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.