Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

San Antonio is 10-2 behind a generational center, Golden State is 8-4 without Stephen Curry, and the price at Frost Bank Center assumes the second fact swallows the first team whole. The Warriors still defend and still share the ball. Whether that is enough to stay inside a huge number is the whole argument.

The Matchup

San Antonio is 10-2, scores 119.2 points per game and allows 108.0, and Victor Wembanyama leads the Spurs at 30.2 points and 11.7 rebounds per game, the most dominant two-way line in this matchup. De'Aaron Fox runs the offense at 6.2 assists per game, and he is questionable tonight with soreness in his left hip. Devin Vassell is questionable tonight with tightness in his left adductor. Keep an eye on whether Fox plays before placing a bet.

Golden State is 8-4, scores 119.3 and allows 111.5, numbers built with Curry at the center of everything. Stephen Curry is out tonight with a tear in his oblique abdominal muscle, and he will be re-evaluated in two weeks. Draymond Green leads the remaining Warriors at 7.5 assists per game, and Yaxel Lendeborg leads the team at 7.4 rebounds per game. Kristaps Porzingis and Moses Moody are also out tonight, so Golden State's rotation is short in two spots.

Both teams have played twelve games, so these are this season's numbers with nothing carried over. DraftKings makes San Antonio a 13.5-point home favorite at Frost Bank Center, with a total of 218.5 and the Spurs at -750 on the moneyline.

Key Factors

Curry's absence is already in the season numbers only partly, and it is fully in this price. Golden State's offense without Curry loses its gravity, and every set gets harder against a defense anchored by Wembanyama. That is the favorite's case, and it is strong. The counter is that 13.5 points asks San Antonio to beat a winning, well-coached team by two touchdowns worth of margin, with its own lead guard questionable.

Golden State's defense is the underdog's real argument. The Warriors allow 111.5 points per game and defend the first action as well as anyone, and a slower, lower-possession game shrinks the number of chances San Antonio gets to separate. These teams combine to score 238.5 points per game, well above the total of 218.5, which says the market expects the pace Curry's absence removes.

The honest counter is Wembanyama himself. He can wreck a game plan on both ends in the same quarter, Golden State has no like-for-like answer for him, and if Fox plays at full speed the Spurs can score in waves. This pick needs the Warriors' veterans to keep the game in the mud for four quarters.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.