Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire FC Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - MLS
Orlando's road games have been chaos all season and Chicago score freely at Soldier Field, which is how a Wednesday night in late October gets a total this big. Neither defense has earned the benefit of the doubt.
The Matchup
This is the game on the slate most likely to turn into a track meet. Orlando have scored 60 goals and conceded 72 in 31 matches, the leakiest defense in the Eastern Conference, and their away games have been chaos all season. Orlando scored 28 goals in 15 away games and conceded 50, and their last five games produced 6, 5, 6, 5 and 4 goals, including a 3-3 draw at Toronto and a 4-1 win over D.C. United. Chicago are built to join in. The Fire scored 28 goals in 15 home games and sit fourth in the East at 15-6-10.
Neither club has named its side yet. Chicago are expected to keep the 4-3-3 they used at Atlanta on October 24, with Robert Lewandowski leading the line and Jonathan Bamba and Philip Zinckernagel wide. Orlando are expected to keep the 4-2-3-1 from the 2-2 draw with New York City, with Antoine Griezmann and Martin Ojeda behind Justin Ellis.
Key Factors
Maren Haile-Selassie has scored 3 goals across Chicago's last five games and Zinckernagel has 2 in the same span, and Chicago put 3 past Atlanta on Saturday with Bamba on the scoresheet as well. Orlando's end of the bargain is their defense. Fifty goals conceded in 15 away games is not a slump, it is an identity, and even their wins come with goals, the 3-2 win over Columbus and the 4-1 win over D.C. United producing five goals each.
The counterpoint is the size of the number. A total this high needs four goals to start paying and five to win outright, and Chicago's last home game was a 3-1 loss to Philadelphia that stayed under it. If Chicago control the tempo the way they did in the 1-0 loss at New England, this can land on three and lose. But Orlando do not play controlled games on the road, and Chicago at home have no reason to start now.
Orlando do not do quiet road games. Their away matches swing end to end because the attack travels and the defense does not, and Chicago at Soldier Field are built to join that kind of game rather than slow it down. The risk is honest: a total this high needs the game to open up, and a controlled Chicago performance leaves this short. But nothing in Orlando's season suggests control is available to either side on Wednesday night. Take Over 3.75 goals at -104.
Game information
| DATE | Wednesday (10/28) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 7:30 PM CT |
| HOW TO WATCH | Apple TV |
| VENUE | Soldier Field, Chicago |
| COMPETITION | MLS |
| ROUND | MLS Regular Season |
| SPREAD | Chicago Fire FC -1 (-105) |
| TOTAL | 3.75 (Over -104) |
| MONEYLINE | Chicago Fire FC -166 / Draw +388 / Orlando City SC +342 |
| DRAW NO BET | Chicago Fire FC -340 / Orlando City SC +258 |
More picks this week
Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.