Panathinaikos Athens vs Anadolu Efes Istanbul Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Round 9

Anadolu Efes lost by 30 points on Wednesday, the worst night of their season, and 48 hours later the league leaders walk into their building in Istanbul. Panathinaikos are 7-1 behind the best defense in the competition, but they needed a last minute basket to escape a one win Milan team on Tuesday, and a wounded home team with nothing to protect plays a different game.

The Matchup

The case for the visitors is obvious, so start there and respect it. Panathinaikos allow 74.0 points per game this season, the stingiest mark in the league, and their wins are built on making good offenses look ordinary for long stretches. Nunn returned from injury on Tuesday and immediately took the Milan game over, scoring 20 points with six assists in 23 minutes, including the layup that sealed an 80-75 win with 30 seconds left.

Mathias Lessort backed him with 13 points and 11 rebounds in that game. When Panathinaikos get Nunn creating and Lessort rolling to the rim, they are the best team in the competition, and Efes saw a version of that machine up close in last spring and its playoff series.

Efes have to answer with the guards they actually have, and those guards can score. Jordan Loyd led Efes with 19 points in the Hapoel loss, the one visitor who kept competing while the game ran away, and Cameron Payne has changed what this offense can do since arriving as the emergency signing in early October.

Payne scored 22 points in the home win over Besiktas last week and came in averaging 17 points per game, production this team desperately needed after its backcourt was gutted. Matthew Strazel gives them a third creator, with 19 points in the road win at Zalgiris Kaunas this month and 12 points with five assists on Wednesday. None of that fixes Wednesday, but it does mean Efes can trade baskets at home in a way the 3-5 record understates.

Availability is the shadow over everything Efes do right now. Mike James is out for Efes after Achilles surgery, sidelined for seven to nine months per his club and the Basketball Sphere injury report updated October 29. PJ Dozier is out with a back injury, and Isaia Cordinier is out while rehabbing after surgery, both per the same report and the league and its official Round 8 update.

Georgios Papagiannis is back, though, having returned on Wednesday for his first minutes since tearing his ACL last October, and his size behind Bruno Fernando matters against Lessort. Panathinaikos arrive close to whole: Nunn and Lessort are available, Kostas Sloukas is available, and their one absence is Nikos Rogkavopoulos, who is out with a left hamstring strain per the October 29 report. Efes are the thinner team. Friday asks whether home court and pride can cover that gap for one night.

Key Factors

Wednesday cuts both ways, and the Efes side of it is worth taking seriously. A 30 point home loss in a double round week is the kind of result that gets a response from a veteran locker room, and Pablo Laso has champions throughout his rotation who have been embarrassed before and answered.

Efes also get this game at home, where their two best performances of the season live: the 94-84 win over Real Madrid in Round 2 and the 89-80 win over Besiktas last week, when they built a 21 point first half lead. Their loss column is ugly, but four of the five defeats came on the road or against the top of the table, and the building in Istanbul has been the one place this team still looks like itself.

Panathinaikos, meanwhile, are winning without blowing anyone away, and that is the opening. Their last two wins came by six points over Baskonia and by five over a Milan team sitting at 1-7, a game Milan led in the second half after a 21-4 run. Their offense scores 86.6 points per game, good but not overwhelming, and when Nunn sits, the half court attack can stall against a set defense.

Efes do not need to outplay this team for 40 minutes. They need their home defense, the one that held Zalgiris to 70 points on the road this month, to show up for long enough to keep the fourth quarter within one or two possessions, where a home crowd and free throws do the rest.

History says these two rarely separate by much when it matters. Their playoff series last spring went the full five games, with four of them decided by eight points or fewer, and Efes won a game in Athens in that run.

This is not that Efes team, and James and his absence is the biggest reason why. But the building, the matchup and the moment all point the same way: a league leading favorite that wins close, visiting a proud home team playing its first game since a humiliation, with a short number that asks the favorite to do something it has not done in two weeks.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.