Portland Timbers vs St. Louis CITY SC Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - MLS
St. Louis turned Energizer Park into one of the West's hardest trips this season, and a Portland side that has won twice in 15 away games now has to survive it.
The Matchup
St. Louis get this one at home, in one of the loudest buildings in the league. St. Louis won 9 of 15 at Energizer Park this season and scored 34 goals in those 15 home games, including a 6-2 win over the LA Galaxy on October 11 that showed what their press does to a side that cannot play through it. Portland's split is the widest in the league.
The Timbers won 8 times at home and only twice in 15 away games, conceding 31 goals on the road. Neither club has named its side yet. St. Louis are expected to start Simon Becher and Rafael Navarro as the front pair, the pairing that started the 3-0 loss at Real Salt Lake on October 25, with Benjamin Lundt in goal, because Roman Bürki is already ruled out in concussion protocol per the league status report.
Portland are expected to start Kristoffer Velde and Ariel Lassiter, who both started the 3-2 home win over Charlotte on October 25. Portland's own list is defensive, with Juan Mosquera, Zac McGraw, and Brandon Bye all ruled out, which thins a back line that already travels badly.
Key Factors
Becher and Navarro split the scoring load in a way that suits this matchup. Becher has 9 goals, Navarro has 8, and Marcel Hartel adds 6 behind them, so Portland cannot sit on one man while the St. Louis press forces the game into their half. Portland conceded 3 at San Jose on September 27 and 3 at Sporting Kansas City on October 11 in their recent road games, and a defense missing three regulars is being asked to withstand one of the heaviest home scoring sides in the West.
The counterpoint starts in the St. Louis goal. Bürki is a genuine loss, Lundt is the deputy, and Portland's attack is not toothless, with Velde on 8 goals and Lassiter on 7, plus a 3-2 win over Charlotte on Saturday that showed they can finish a game that opens up.
St. Louis also closed the season with a flat 3-0 defeat at Salt Lake, and their home dominance has come with 19 goals conceded, so Portland will get moments. The season-long pattern is still louder than one bad afternoon. St. Louis score in waves at home, Portland concede in waves away, and the press that drives the home side does not depend on who is in goal.
St. Louis at home and Portland on the road are almost two different leagues, and this game asks the road version to survive Energizer Park at its loudest. The hosts press, they score in waves at Energizer Park, and Portland's away defending has cracked against far less. St. Louis missing their first-choice goalkeeper is the worry, and a Portland goal keeps this honest, but the pattern of the season points one way. Take St. Louis CITY SC -0.75 at -105.
Game information
| DATE | Wednesday (10/28) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 7:30 PM CT |
| HOW TO WATCH | Apple TV |
| VENUE | Energizer Park, St. Louis |
| COMPETITION | MLS |
| ROUND | MLS Regular Season |
| SPREAD | St. Louis CITY SC -0.75 (-105) |
| TOTAL | 3.25 (Over -120 · Under +101) |
| MONEYLINE | St. Louis CITY SC -133 / Draw +328 / Portland Timbers +302 |
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