Pumas UNAM vs Puebla Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Liga MX Apertura

Pumas has three rounds to save its season and starts the run at the weakest home attack in the bottom half, a Puebla side that just traded goals in a 4-3 loss at Atlas. Juninho gives the visitors the one reliable finisher in the match, and anything but a win leaves Pumas chasing other results in November.

The Matchup

Pumas travels better than it plays at home, which is the odd truth at the heart of this match. The visitors are 4-5-5 overall but 3-1-3 away, scoring 10 goals in seven road matches, while Puebla is 4-4-6 and has won once in six at home, scoring only 7 goals in those six matches at the Cuauhtémoc.

Juninho leads Pumas with 8 goals, and Robert Morales, who has 4, scored off the bench in the 1-1 draw with Tigres on October 25. Puebla's attack leans on Eduardo Mustre, who has 3 goals, and a side that scored three at Atlas last weekend still lost, because the defending keeps undoing the work.

Neither club has named its side yet. The expectation is Juninho leading the Pumas line with Keylor Navas in goal, both of whom started against Tigres, and Morales pressing to start after his goal in that match. Pumas is without Sebastián Córdova, who tore an ACL and is expected to miss the rest of the Apertura.

For Puebla, Mustre is expected up front after starting at Atlas, with Facundo Almada, who has 2 goals, part of the supporting cast. Puebla conceded four in that Atlas match and four at home to Monterrey the week before, and a back line in that kind of form is the last thing that wants Juninho running at it with the season on the line.

Key Factors

The table is the situational fact that shapes everything. Pumas sits twelfth on 17 points, three behind the last Liguilla place, and the clubs around Pumas hold games in hand, so a draw in Puebla is close to a defeat in practical terms.

That pushes Esteban Solari's side forward in a way a mid-table team would not risk, and it suits Juninho, who does his best work attacking space rather than a set defense. Puebla's home games have been tight because Puebla cannot score there, 7 goals in six matches, not because Puebla locks games down.

The counterpoint is the draw, and it is a serious one. Puebla has drawn three of six at home, Pumas has drawn five of fourteen overall, and Pumas has won once in its last five matches. A moneyline bet dies on a draw, with no handicap cushion to soften it.

Puebla also scored three at Atlas, a reminder that the home side can trade goals when a game opens up, and Navas has not kept Pumas safe on his own this season, with 23 goals conceded in 14 matches. The edge is still Pumas's, because the visitors need the win, own the match's proven finisher, and face the one home defense that has been leaking goals for a month.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.