RB Leipzig vs 1. FC Union Berlin Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Bundesliga

Fourth-placed RB Leipzig, perfect at home and beaten three times in four away matches, visit a 1. FC Union Berlin side sixteenth at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, where Union have lost only once in five league matches all season.

The Matchup

Bundesliga Matchday 10 brings RB Leipzig to Stadion An der Alten Försterei on Saturday with the two clubs living in different parts of the table. Leipzig are fourth on 18 points with a 6-0-3 record. Union Berlin are sixteenth on 7 points at 1-4-4, sitting in the relegation play-off place, and they have scored 7 goals in nine matches while conceding 21. On paper this is a mismatch. The venue is where the paper starts to tear.

Leipzig's season is really two seasons. At home they have won all five league matches, scoring 23 goals and conceding 2, with FC Augsburg beaten 5-2 last time out and Eintracht Frankfurt beaten 6-0 in October. Away from home they have won once in four, scoring 4 goals and conceding 11. They lost 3-1 at Werder Bremen, 2-0 at Bayer Leverkusen and 6-1 at Bayern Munich, and their only away win came at Schalke 04, who sit seventeenth.

The talent is not in doubt. Christopher Nkunku has 5 goals and 2 assists in seven matches, Rômulo has 5 goals in seven, and Antonio Nusa has 4 goals and a team-high 7 assists in nine. Tidiam Gomis has taken a team-high 24 shots, Brajan Gruda has 4 assists, and Maarten Vandevoordt has made 43 saves, which hints at how open Leipzig's games can get at the other end.

Union's case is narrower and mostly about this ground. They have lost once in five home league matches, scoring 6 goals and conceding 7, and they held Borussia Dortmund to a 0-0 draw here in October and beat SV Elversberg 1-0. Their scoring is spread painfully thin. Janik Haberer and Tim Skarke lead the side with 2 goals each, Skarke adding an assist, Livan Burcu has 1, and Frederik Ronnow has made 35 saves behind a defence that bends at home without quite breaking.

Neither club has named its side yet. Union are expected to keep faith with the side that started at SC Freiburg, Ronnow in goal behind Marvin Friedrich and Zeno Van Den Bosch, with Haberer, Livan Burcu and Skarke expected to start up front. Leipzig are expected to stay with the side that beat Augsburg, Vandevoordt in goal, Willi Orbán and Castello Lukeba at the back, David Raum and Ridle Baku wide, Nkunku playing behind Rômulo, and Nusa expected to feature after a substitute appearance in that match.

Key Factors

Recent form sharpens the split. Union have scored 3 goals and conceded 4 across their last five league matches, a run of tight games built on the 1-0 win over SV Elversberg, a goalless draw, two 1-1 draws, and a 2-0 defeat at SC Freiburg. Leipzig have scored 18 in their last five, but 15 of those goals came in the three home matches. Their two away games in that run produced a 6-1 defeat at Bayern Munich and a 2-0 win at Schalke 04. When Leipzig leave home, the goals dry up at one end and leak at the other.

The honest counterpoint is that Leipzig only need one half-hour of their home form to wreck a low-scoring read. Nkunku and Rômulo have 5 goals each, Nusa creates more than anyone on the side, and Union's home record includes a 3-3 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt in August that showed how quickly a game at this ground can unravel.

Union also need points badly enough that a late deficit would force them to open up, and an open final half-hour is exactly how a tight game turns into a four-goal game. If Leipzig score first and early, this pick is in real trouble.

Both sides come in rested, Union 13 days after the defeat at Freiburg and Leipzig 14 days after beating Augsburg, so tired legs are no excuse either way. What Union can control is the tempo. Their home matches have been scraps, decided by set pieces and patience, and a Leipzig side that has scored 4 goals in four away matches has not shown it can force a game open on the road. The longer this stays level, the more it becomes the kind of afternoon Union want and Leipzig have struggled to win away from home.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.