RB Leipzig vs Schalke 04 Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Bundesliga

RB Leipzig are the league's great split personality, unstoppable at home and beaten in every away game, and Schalke's Veltins Arena is where goals go to die. Saturday asks which version of Leipzig bothers to travel.

The Matchup

Leipzig's numbers barely look like the same team. At home they have won four of four, scored 18 goals and conceded none. Away they have lost all three, scored twice and conceded 11, including a 6-1 defeat at Bayern. The talent is not the question. Rômulo scored twice off the bench in the 4-0 win over Elversberg on Saturday and Tidiam Gomis opened the scoring, and Leipzig's bench would start for most of the league.

Schalke are the opposite kind of strange. They are 16th with 4 goals all season, and they have not scored at home in three games. They have also conceded once at home, drawing 0-0 with Bayern and Elversberg and losing 1-0 to Mainz. The Veltins Arena games are slogs by design, built on Loris Karius and a back five that defends its box and little else.

Neither club has named its side yet. The expectation is the same Schalke 5-3-2 that drew 0-0 at Cologne, with Hwang Hee-Chan and Junior Adamu up front, and Rômulo pushing for a start in Leipzig's front line after his two goals against Elversberg. Leipzig report no injuries or suspensions, which makes their away record harder to excuse, not easier.

Key Factors

The mechanism here is patience. Schalke cannot chase a game, because the goals are not in this team, so they will sit in, slow every restart, and dare Leipzig to break down a packed box the way Bayern could not in September. Leipzig's away problem has been exactly that kind of afternoon. At Leverkusen they lost 2-0 without scoring, and their two away goals all season came in defeats at Werder Bremen and Bayern, games that asked nothing of their patience.

The counterpoint writes itself. Leipzig are fifth, Schalke are 16th, and if Leipzig score first, Schalke's plan collapses, because a team that has not scored at home all season is chasing an equalizer it is not built to find. One moment from Antonio Nusa or Tidiam Gomis and this pick is in real trouble. But Leipzig have had three chances to win away from home and taken none of them, shipping goals in bunches each time, and until they prove they can travel, the home slog is the side to be on.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.