Red Bull New York vs Nashville SC Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - MLS

Red Bull New York come to GEODIS Park on Sunday with their playoff hopes close to the edge, and Nashville SC, first in the East behind the stingiest defence in MLS, are the last hosts a desperate side would choose.

The Matchup

Nashville's season rests on a defence nobody in MLS has solved. They sit first in the East at 21-8-3, and the 23 goals they have conceded in 32 matches are the fewest in the league by a distance. That control has held through the autumn.

Nashville are unbeaten in five, with wins at Austin FC and CF Montréal either side of a 4-0 beating of Sporting Kansas City, and they have conceded twice across the whole run. Visiting sides at GEODIS Park do not get to play their own game for long, because Nashville squeeze the middle of the field and make every attack start from deep.

New York's problem is the opposite end. They are tenth at 11-6-15, they have conceded 59 goals, and their goalkeeper Ethan Horvath has made 104 saves, a number that tells its own story about how much traffic reaches him.

Julian Hall gives them a genuine threat, with 12 goals this season, and Jorge Ruvalcaba has 8, but the supply line has to survive Nashville's press before either of them sees the ball in a dangerous place. New York have lost their last two away matches, at D.C. United and at New England Revolution, and both defeats followed the same pattern of chasing a game that had already tilted.

Neither club has named its side yet. The expectation is Nashville close to the side that drew with Philadelphia Union in midweek, Brian Schwake in goal, Maxwell Woledzi and Jeisson Palacios at the back, and Cristian Espinoza, who has 14 assists this season, wide. Sam Surridge and Hany Mukhtar did not start that match, and Nashville still kept a clean sheet without them.

Surridge has 18 goals and Mukhtar 17, so whether the pair return to the eleven or arrive from the bench, New York have to plan for the league's most productive pairing either way. For New York, the expectation is Hall and Ruvalcaba leading the line again after starting at New England, with Ronald Donkor in midfield.

Key Factors

The shape of this match is set by the table. New York sit two points behind Columbus Crew in the East's last wild-card place, so a point may not be enough and a defeat could end their season's argument.

A side that has to chase a result at GEODIS Park eventually has to open up, and opening up is what Nashville punish. Surridge attacks the space behind a high line better than anyone in this squad, Mukhtar drifts into the pockets a stretched midfield leaves, and Espinoza's delivery gives Nashville a second route when the game is still tight.

The counterpoint is the margin this pick asks for. Nashville drew a blank against Philadelphia in midweek with a rotated attack, and their last five matches include two draws, so a controlled 1-0 win is a very live version of this afternoon, and that returns only half the stake on this line.

New York are also better than their position on their good days. They beat Inter Miami CF 2-0 two matches ago, Hall is in scoring form, and if he takes the one clear chance a Nashville game usually allows, the hosts need three. What beats this pick is a Nashville side content to manage the afternoon rather than chase it.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.