Richmond Spiders vs Southern Illinois Salukis Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Richmond brings a perfect start and a hot offense into Carbondale, where Southern Illinois and Jalen Haynes just traded punches in a 100-93 shootout at Kansas City.

The Matchup

Richmond visits Southern Illinois on Thursday night at the Banterra Center in Carbondale, with Richmond a 4.5-point favorite, a total of 155.5, on ESPN+. Both teams can score, and both teams just proved it in very different buildings.

Richmond is 3-0 this season, scoring 95.3 points a game and allowing 58.7, and the best of the three wins came on the road, a 79-53 thumping of Temple where the Spiders controlled the game from the start. The other two, 100-77 over UNC Asheville and 107-46 over Southern Virginia, say less, because Southern Virginia is not a Division I test. Last season Richmond finished 15-17 in the Atlantic 10, scoring 76.7 points a game and allowing 73.9, so this start is well above what that group managed, and the Temple win is the result that makes it believable.

Southern Illinois is 1-1 out of the Missouri Valley, scoring 87.5 points a game and allowing 70.0 this season. The Salukis handled Maryville 82-40 at home, then went to Kansas City and lost 100-93 in a track meet.

Last season Southern Illinois finished 16-16, scoring 73.0 and allowing 69.6, a team that lived in close, physical games. Two games into this season the Salukis look nothing like that, because Jalen Haynes has changed how they play. Haynes and his backcourt mates carry no injury designations into Thursday.

Key Factors

Haynes scored 32 points at Kansas City on 10-of-23 shooting, and a guard willing to take 23 shots on the road changes the math for a home underdog. He did not do it alone, either. Jeremiah Jackson added 18 points and hit 4 of his 7 three-pointers, and Damien Mayo Jr. scored 14 on 6-of-10 shooting, so Richmond cannot simply load up on Haynes and dare the others to beat them. Southern Illinois put up 93 in a loss, on the road, against a Kansas City team that shot the lights out. That offense travels home now.

Richmond's counter is real, and it starts with balance. Jamie Kaiser Jr. led the Spiders at Temple with 16 points, 8 rebounds and 4 steals, and Derin Saran filled the box score with 10 points, 12 rebounds and 6 assists. A team whose big guard rebounds like that and whose wings force steals can squeeze a shootout into a half-court game, and Richmond allowing 58.7 points a game this season is not all schedule. If the Spiders turn Haynes into a volume shooter with no help, they cover this going away.

The honest worry is exactly that squeeze. Southern Illinois gave up 100 at Kansas City, and a defense that leaky can let Richmond's balance become a parade of open shots. But the Banterra Center crowd and a home whistle tend to keep a scoring guard in rhythm, and the total of 155.5 tells you the market expects points from both sides. In a game played in the 150s, 4.5 points is a thin cushion for a road favorite whose prettiest numbers came against Southern Virginia.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.