Saint Louis Billikens vs Missouri Tigers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Saint Louis and Missouri meet for the first time in 25 years on Friday night, on a neutral floor at Enterprise Center in St. Louis, and both arrive 1-0 after lopsided openers.

The Matchup

Saint Louis meets Missouri on Friday night at Enterprise Center in St. Louis, on ESPNU, with Missouri a 2.5-point favorite and a total of 161.5. Both teams are 1-0. The building is a neutral floor in Saint Louis' home city, so neither team is home: Missouri gives up its home court, Saint Louis gives up Chaifetz Arena, and the crowd will lean toward the hometown school in a rivalry that needs no introduction in that state.

Saint Louis went 29-6 last season, scoring 87.2 points a game and allowing 70.5 in the Atlantic 10. Missouri went 20-13, scoring 79.2 and allowing 75.5 in the SEC. The openers point the other way: Saint Louis beat Lehigh 92-67 at home, while Missouri hung 111 on Cleveland State in a 61-point win that says more about Missouri's depth than about Cleveland State.

That is the tension. Saint Louis has the better recent history and the friendlier crowd. Missouri has the deeper roster, the bigger conference pedigree, and an opener that showed scoring from everywhere. A 2.5-point line says these teams are nearly even, and Missouri's case is that they are not.

Key Factors

Missouri's opener was a depth chart making its argument. Jason Crowe Jr. scored 23 points on 9-of-16 shooting and 4-of-7 from three. Toni Bryant added 15 points with 3 blocks and 6 rebounds, and Mark Mitchell Jr. ran the game with 11 points and 10 assists.

When the lead guard is dealing double-digit assists and the frontcourt protects the rim, the favorite does not need one hero. It needs its rotation to show up whole, and in a rivalry game Missouri's bench is the safest bet on the floor to keep the level high for 40 minutes.

Saint Louis can score with anyone when its guards are right, and they were right in the opener: Quentin Jones scored 15 points, Kellen Thames scored 15 on a perfect 6-of-6 shooting night, and Alon Michaeli added 11 points with 6 rebounds. The Billikens scored 87.2 points a game last season, the best number in this matchup, and their offense travels because it is built on guard play rather than size. Missouri allowed 75.5 points a game last season, the softest defensive profile in this game, and Saint Louis is built to attack exactly that.

The counterpoint is strong and honest. Saint Louis won 29 games last season, gets this game in its own city with a crowd that will sound like a home crowd, and has the guards to turn this into the shootout the 161.5 total expects.

If Jones and Thames control the pace the way they did against Lehigh, Saint Louis wins this game outright and the small Missouri line looks like a gift taken the wrong way. The bet is that Missouri's depth and Bryant's rim protection hold up over the full night in a way one great Billikens backcourt night cannot quite overcome.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.