Cleveland State Vikings vs Missouri Tigers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1
Missouri lays 25.5 points at home against a Cleveland State team that shot 37.5 percent from three last season. The Vikings' defense was the worst on this slate, and their shooting is the reason this number is too big.
The Matchup
Missouri is a 25.5-point favorite over Cleveland State at Mizzou Arena in Columbia on Tuesday night, with a total of 158.5, on SECN+. It is the season opener for both teams. Missouri finished 20-13 last season, scoring 79.2 points per game and allowing 75.5. Cleveland State finished 11-22, scoring 79.8 and allowing 85.9. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.
Cleveland State's offense is a shooting argument. The Vikings attempted 28.9 threes a game last season and made 37.5 percent of them, the best combination of volume and accuracy on this slate. Obie Bronston Jr. averaged 10.3 points, and Derek Vorst averaged 7.9 points while shooting 42.1 percent from three, a frontcourt shooter who pulls a rim protector away from the basket. A team that shoots like that is never fully out of a game, because its points arrive in bunches of three.
Missouri's profile is efficient and a little careless. The Tigers shot 49.0 percent from the field last season, got to the line 24.2 times a game, and got 14.4 points a game from Jordan Crawford. They also shot 68.6 percent on those free throws and committed 12.4 turnovers a game. Against an underdog whose whole case is variance from three, giving away possessions and leaving points at the line is how a favorite lets the back door stay open.
Key Factors
Three-point variance is the mechanism. Cleveland State does not need to outplay Missouri for a full game. It needs two hot stretches from three, the kind its shooting produced all last season, and a 25.5-point margin cannot survive many of those. Missouri's defense allowed 75.5 a game, respectable but not the kind that chases shooters off the line for a full night.
Missouri's free throw shooting cuts its own margin. A favorite that attempts 24.2 free throws and makes 68.6 percent is donating points in the exact late-game situations where big spreads are protected. If this game is played close late, those misses are the difference between a cover and a sweat.
The counterpoint is Cleveland State's defense, and it is a serious one. The Vikings allowed 85.9 points a game last season, the worst mark on this slate, and Missouri's 49.0 percent shooting is the best.
If the Tigers get the shots they want early, Cleveland State's shooters will spend the night taking the ball out of the net and rushing the other way, which is when a variance offense turns into a turnover offense. The pick is that the shooting keeps the Vikings inside the number even on a night their defense struggles.
Missouri is the better team, and Cleveland State's defense might make this ugly early. But the Vikings shoot the three too well to be handed this many points, and Missouri leaves too many of its own points at the foul line to trust with a margin this size. Take the points: Cleveland State +25.5 at -108.
Game Information
| Date | Tuesday (11/3) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 7:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | SECN+ |
| Venue | Mizzou Arena, Columbia |
| Spread | Missouri Tigers -25.5 |
| Total | 158.5 |
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