San José State Spartans vs UC Irvine Anteaters Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

San Jose State scored 95 in its opener behind two guards who combined for 53, and UC Irvine answered with 92 and a bench that barely missed. Saturday at the Bren Events Center is the best game on the late slate.

The Matchup

San Jose State visits UC Irvine on Saturday night at the Bren Events Center in Irvine, on ESPN+, with UC Irvine an 8.5-point favorite and a total of 146.5. Both teams are 1-0, and both opened by scoring in the nineties: UC Irvine beat Chapman 92-66 and San Jose State beat UTSA 95-74. It is a Mountain West against Big West meeting, and it closes the night with two programs whose identities point in opposite directions.

Last season UC Irvine went 23-12, scoring 77.3 points a game and allowing 68.6, while San Jose State went 9-24, scoring 72.0 and allowing 78.5. With one game played on each side, the team numbers in this preview lean heavily on last season, with the openers mixed in. The Anteaters are doing it with new size this year, including Olivier Rioux in the middle, while San Jose State's surge runs through Joey Chammaa and Mekhi Mason, a backcourt that was not producing nights like this a season ago, so the opener film carries real weight on both sides.

Chammaa was electric against UTSA, scoring 27 points on 6-of-9 shooting with 3 threes, 6 assists, and 2 steals. Mason added 26 points with 5 threes and 7 rebounds, and Robert Vaihola scored 13 on a perfect 6-of-6 shooting with 11 rebounds. UC Irvine spread it around instead: Luke Isaak scored 16 off the bench on 4-of-6 shooting from three, Rioux scored 13 with 12 rebounds, and Tama Isaac and Josiah Johnson scored 12 each.

Key Factors

Defense and the glass are the mechanism in this pick. UC Irvine allowed 68.6 points a game last season and just held Chapman to 66, and the Anteaters protect the rim in layers: Rioux changes shots simply by standing in the paint, and Nes Emeneke blocked 4 shots in 15 minutes in the opener. San Jose State allowed 78.5 a game last season, the leaky profile in this matchup, and a road team that defends like that has to keep scoring at its opener's pace for forty minutes in a building where the home team controls tempo.

The second piece is depth against top-heaviness. San Jose State's opener was two guards and a center: Chammaa, Mason, and Vaihola scored 66 of the 95. UC Irvine got double figures from five players, its leading scorer came off the bench, and its rotation ran eleven deep without a drop-off.

When a favorite can keep fresh defenders rotating onto a two-man show, the show slows down late, and late is where an 8.5-point home spread gets covered. The total of 146.5 expects San Jose State to score, and the Spartans will, just not at the rate their opener suggests once Irvine's size starts walling off the paint.

The counterpoint is that Chammaa and Mason might simply be too good to scheme away. Two guards who just combined for 53 points, 9 assists, and 8 made threes can win a road game by themselves when both are hot, and San Jose State's 95 points came against a real Division I opponent in UTSA, a stronger opener than Irvine's win over Chapman. If the Spartans' guards shoot it like they did on opening night and Vaihola holds his own inside against the size, San Jose State covers this number and threatens the upset all night.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.