SIU Edwardsville Cougars vs Lipscomb Bisons Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

SIU Edwardsville has defended its way to two wins, while Lipscomb returns home winless and leaning heavily on one scorer to carry its offense.

The Matchup

SIU Edwardsville is 2-0 and has allowed 50.0 points per game, and the honest way to read that number starts with the visitors who produced it. Both wins came at home in First Community Arena against lower division opponents, Eureka and Concordia Chicago, so the defensive average is inflated by the schedule. What is not inflated is the identity. Across the full season last year, the Cougars went 19-13 in the Ohio Valley Conference, scoring 71.0 points per game and allowing 64.7.

Defense is what this program does, against real competition, over a full season. The rotation producing it is balanced. Jordan Pickett scored 19 points on 8 of 15 shooting against Concordia Chicago after 10 against Eureka. Brennan Miller had 13 points and 8 rebounds in one win and 12 points and 7 rebounds in the other.

Gianni Cobb scored 10 points in both games. No Cougar has to be a star for this team to function, which is exactly the kind of opponent a struggling favorite hates to see. Lipscomb is 0-2, and its two losses came on the road, at Southeast Missouri State and at Iowa. Takai Simpkins has been the whole story, scoring 22 points in the first loss and 18 in the second.

Devyn Martin helped with a 13 point, 11 rebound game at Southeast Missouri State and 11 points at Iowa, but the Bisons have scored 66.5 points per game this season and allowed 81.0. Across the full season last year Lipscomb went 19-13 in the Atlantic Sun Conference, scoring 79.7 points per game and allowing 75.7, so this season's offensive start is well below the program's own standard. Allen Arena gives Lipscomb its home opener, and the Bisons need the building as much as the matchup.

Key Factors

The first factor is how much of Lipscomb's offense runs through one player. Simpkins scored 40 of the Bisons' 133 points across their two games, nearly a third of everything, on 10 of 26 shooting. SIU Edwardsville's defense is built to load up on a single scorer, and Pickett and Cobb give the Cougars two different perimeter looks to throw at him without breaking their shape.

If Simpkins has to work for his points the way he did at Iowa, where he shot 5 of 13, Lipscomb needs a second scorer to appear, and nobody else has scored more than Martin's 13 in a game this season. The second factor is the scoring environment. The posted total is 143.5. SIU Edwardsville's games have averaged 138 total points this season, and across last season the Cougars played in games built on defense and half court possessions.

A grind favors the underdog catching points, because the favorite has fewer possessions to build separation. Lipscomb allowed 81.0 points per game this season, and a Cougars offense with four players between 9 and 19 points in its last game can score enough in a grind to stay inside the number. The counterpoint is the step up in class. SIU Edwardsville has beaten two lower division teams at home and now plays its first road game against a program that won 19 games last season and scored 79.7 points per game doing it.

Lipscomb's poor start came entirely on the road, and home openers in Allen Arena have a way of fixing shooting. If the Bisons' offense looks like last season's version for one night, the favorite covers. The Cougars' case is that their defense is the most proven thing in this game, proven across a full season rather than one good week, and proven defenses travel better than struggling offenses do.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.