South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs Kansas State Wildcats Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Kansas State lays 11.5 points at home after being outscored on the season last year. South Dakota State finished with the better differential of the two teams, and its senior guard started every game.

The Matchup

Kansas State is an 11.5-point favorite over South Dakota State at Bramlage Coliseum in Manhattan, Kansas, on Tuesday night, with a total of 158.5, on ESPN+. It is the season opener for both teams. Kansas State finished 12-20 last season, scoring 79.6 points per game and allowing 81.8. South Dakota State finished 14-18, scoring 75.4 and allowing 72.8. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

The differentials deserve a second look. South Dakota State outscored its opponents by 2.6 points a game last season. Kansas State was outscored by 2.3. The Jackrabbits were, by the full-season numbers, the better team, playing in a weaker league. Kalen Garry started all 32 games at guard, and Alec Squires shot 60.2 percent from the field, an efficient finisher on a team that rebounded 37.3 a game and protected the ball at 11.1 turnovers a game.

Kansas State's case is athleticism and its lead guard. Brandon Rechsteiner averaged 12.2 points last season and shot 40.7 percent from three, and the Wildcats pushed the ball to 63.3 field goal attempts a game. Their problem was everything else: 81.8 points allowed, 12.9 turnovers a game, and a 12-20 record built on losing the possession battle in the Big 12. That is a hard profile to lay double digits with, even at home.

Key Factors

The possession battle favors the visitor. Kansas State's 12.9 turnovers a game and loose defense meet a South Dakota State team that plays carefully and rebounds its position. The Jackrabbits do not need to match Kansas State's athletes. They need the game to stay in the half court, where their efficiency and the Wildcats' waste cancel out the talent gap.

The total expects a shootout, 158.5 points, driven by Kansas State's pace. South Dakota State's games averaged 148.3 points last season. If the Jackrabbits drag this game toward their number, Kansas State loses the transition chances its offense depends on, and an 11.5-point spread in a slower game is a much bigger ask.

The counterpoint is the step up in class. South Dakota State built its differential in the Summit League, and Bramlage Coliseum on opening night is a different weight of opponent and crowd. Rechsteiner shooting over a smaller backcourt is a real problem, and if Kansas State's pressure finally produces the turnovers its athletes promise, the Wildcats can separate quickly. The pick is that a team outscored on its own season does not get 11.5 points of trust against a careful, veteran underdog.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.