Seattle U Redhawks vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Hawai'i opens its first Mountain West season at home against Seattle U in the last tip of opening night. The Rainbow Warriors won 24 games and reached the NCAA Tournament last season, then replaced nearly the whole roster, while Seattle brings back the WCC Defensive Player of the Year and a team that already won an exhibition at Oregon.

The Matchup

Hawai'i is a 1.5-point favorite over Seattle U at Bankoh Arena at Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu on Monday night, with a total of 142.5, on MW+. It is the season opener for both teams, and the earliest opener in Hawai'i program history.

Hawai'i finished 24-9 last season, scoring 79.6 points per game and allowing 70.5, and won the Big West on its way to the NCAA Tournament. Seattle U finished 21-14, scoring 72.1 and allowing 67.3. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now. Hawai'i's look different almost completely.

Only two players are back from that 24-win Hawai'i team, and one of them, Tanner Cuff, spent last season recovering from a torn ACL. Cuff was cleared in September, played the exhibition against Hawai'i Pacific, and handed out 5 assists in 17 minutes. Around him is a new team that looked functional in that exhibition. Jaden Matingou, a transfer from Point Loma who averaged 11.9 points and 4.3 assists last season, scored a team-high 19 points on 7-of-8 shooting.

Zack Davidson, who averaged 14.0 points and shot 61.7 percent from the field at Northern Arizona before his season ended early, added 15 points and a team-best 6 rebounds in 26 minutes. Bol Dengdit, a 34-game starter at UC San Diego who averaged 10.7 points, scored 14 on 6-of-9 shooting, and Chance Trujillo, who made 73 three-pointers at Utah Tech last season, hit five of them in the exhibition on his way to 16 points.

Seattle's continuity is its calling card, and it starts with the best defensive player in this game. Will Heimbrodt is the reigning WCC Defensive Player of the Year. He averaged 12.3 points and 2.6 blocks last season, and his 90 blocks set a school record.

Junseok Yeo started all 34 games and averaged 12.0 points, and transfer guard Mason Williams scored a game-high 19 points off the bench when Seattle won its exhibition at Oregon on October 15. The Redhawks defend, they have a rim protector who changes how teams attack, and they have already played a composed road game this fall. Hawai'i has the bigger names in its new group. Seattle has the group that has actually played together.

Key Factors

The glass is where a 1.5-point game gets decided. Hawai'i rebounded 39.0 a game last season and beat its opponents on the boards by 5.9 a game. Seattle was outrebounded, 33.7 to 30.5 a game, by teams that mostly did not rebound like Hawai'i. That is roughly a nine-rebound swing between these profiles, and in a game the market cannot separate, extra possessions are the whole margin. Davidson and Dengdit give Hawai'i two proven finishers to turn those boards into points.

The setting does quiet work for the home team. Seattle traveled about 2,680 miles for this game, and the 7:00 p.m. local tip is 9:00 p.m. on Seattle body clocks. Hawai'i went 16-3 at home last season, and Seattle went 5-8 in Division I road games. A visitor that was a losing road team, playing its first real game at the end of a long travel day, against a crowd seeing the earliest opener in school history, is fighting the night as well as the opponent.

Two honest problems stand in front of this pick. Isaiah Kerr, the only returning Hawai'i player who actually played last season, when he averaged 6.4 points off the bench, did not suit up for the exhibition, and neither did center Houran Dan. No reason was given for either absence, and Hawai'i's opener preview offered no update. Keep an eye on whether Kerr plays before placing a bet.

And Hawai'i's new group showed its seams in the exhibition, collecting one offensive rebound and turning the ball over 14 times against a Division II team. If Seattle's defense, with Heimbrodt waiting at the rim, turns those loose possessions into a slow, ugly game, Seattle's continuity wins it. The pick is that Hawai'i's size on the glass and the Honolulu setting matter more than its newness, over one night, by more than a possession.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.