South Florida Bulls vs DePaul Blue Demons Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1
South Florida forced 16 turnovers and put five players in double figures in its opener. DePaul won its opener at the free-throw line while its starting backcourt went cold. One of these 1-0 teams looked the part.
The Matchup
South Florida visits DePaul on Thursday night at Wintrust Arena in Chicago, with DePaul a 6.5-point favorite, a total of 150.5, on truTV. Both teams are 1-0, and that is about all their openers had in common.
South Florida finished 25-9 last season, scoring 87.5 points a game and allowing 75.7. DePaul finished 16-16, scoring 70.3 and allowing 69.6. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now. Even allowing for the turnover, a 25-win team that scored like the Bulls did is a strange kind of road underdog, and Thursday is a chance to see whether the market has this one backwards.
The openers cut in opposite directions. South Florida beat Charleston Southern 98-71 by turning defense into offense, with 13 steals and 50 points in the paint. DePaul beat West Georgia 75-58, a comfortable win that leaned heavily on the whistle: the Blue Demons' leading scorer did most of his work at the free-throw line.
Key Factors
South Florida's pressure is the argument. Zayden High scored 20 points on 9-of-15 shooting with 8 rebounds and 3 steals against Charleston Southern, and Sonny Wilson added 19 points with 6 assists and 4 steals. Behind them the scoring kept coming: Chris Davis Jr. had 15, Mike James scored 14 with 8 rebounds, and Josh Omojafo added 14 off the bench. A road team with five scorers and a defense that creates its own fast breaks does not need its half-court offense to be perfect.
DePaul's worry is where its points come from. Koree Cotton scored 20 off the bench against West Georgia, but 11 of those points came at the free-throw line on a 4-of-12 shooting night. Magoon Gwath was genuinely good, with 19 points, 6 rebounds and 2 blocks, and Noah Meeusen ran the second unit with 11 points and 8 assists.
The starting backcourt is the hole: Kruz McClure and Layden Blocker combined for 4 points on 2-of-12 shooting, and neither made a three. Against a defense built on ball pressure, a favorite whose starting guards cannot score has to win the game in the paint, every possession, all night.
The counterpoint is DePaul's size and the building. Gwath protects the rim, Blocker blocked 3 shots of his own despite the cold shooting, and DePaul held West Georgia to 58 points. If the Blue Demons' defense travels the way it looked on Monday, South Florida's easy baskets dry up and the Bulls have to win a half-court game on the road. The bet is that the Bulls' pressure travels better than DePaul's starting backcourt shooting does, and that a team this balanced does not belong catching points it may not need.
South Florida won with pressure and balance in its opener, and DePaul's starting guards could not buy a basket in theirs, which is a bad pairing for a home favorite laying points. The Bulls do not need to be the better team all night. They need their defense to keep creating easy baskets. Take the points with South Florida Bulls +6.5 at -112.
Game Information
| Date | Thursday (11/5) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 7:30 PM CT |
| How to Watch | truTV |
| Venue | Wintrust Arena, Chicago |
| Spread | DePaul Blue Demons -6.5 |
| Total | 150.5 |
| Moneyline | DePaul Blue Demons -285 |
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